| Topic: | Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | |
| Posted by: | Francis Rowe | |
| Date/Time: | 30/11/24 08:31:00 |
| Michael, I congratulate you on your higher standards but sometimes you have to work with what data is available. While accepting that the Department for Transport data on the number of motor vehicles is deeply flawed, can we completely discount it in the absence of other more reliable numbers? The methodology of estimation isn't going to give a precise number but the assumption that Chiswick High Road might have followed the broader trends seen elsewhere in London since the last manual count is likely to give us a sense of the broader picture. It is assuming the number of motor vehicles on CHR is down post Covid because they have data for similar roads for that period. While there may be specific factors that would lead to that being wrong, as it appears to be for the estimates on the cycle count, I can't think of any that would apply to motor vehicles for Chiswick High Road and there are other factors that might indicate that the fall might have been greater than the DfT estimates. Therefore while there is no proof, and your high standards may prevent you from accepting this, it seems a reasonable conclusion that the number of motor vehicles has fallen significantly on Chiswick High from 2019 to the present day. We do have numbers that would meet your high standards which show categorically that congestion has increased in Chiswick during this period. So the data that we have tells us that traffic delays have risen at a time when the number of vehicles probably has fallen. The relevance of this is that number of vehicles will increase again due to the Rivercourt Road restriction. Hopefully you would agree that an estimate of a quarter of those that previously used Rivercourt Road will now come through Chiswick which would be an extra thousand vehicles a day which is probably just shy of a 10% increase in non-bus motor traffic. What we need to ask is how this will affect local roads. Will the queues on the designated routes mean that SatNavs start to direct vehicles up roads such as Heathfield Gardens, Sutton Court Road, Dukes Avenue and maybe even Ashbourne Grove. How will these diversions affect the bus route on Chiswick Lane, which has already seen substantial increases in delays and how will bus travel times along Chiswick High Road be affected? Will the extra vehicles transecting C9 shift collision risk to Chiswick? You may have an opinion on the answer to these questions but we don't anything for sure because not even the most basic research or modelling has been done and Hounslow Council is supinely accepting a change which may have a very major impact on our area. |