| Topic: | Re:Re:Major things we get wrong. | |
| Posted by: | Claire Moran | |
| Date/Time: | 10/07/13 14:58:00 |
| And maybe those so-called 'stupid' people referred to earlier saying they didn't believe the statistics quoted in the Independent have a point. The government has admitted that they do not have a lot of the stats on immigration because they do not track it all. I think Migrationwatch is a right-wing organisation, but I haven't seen anyone contradicting their paper:- The number of illegals is seriously underestimated, given that 2 million visas are issued every year and there are no checks on departure. The number of illegals is more likely to be 1 million than 0.5 million. Subsequent dependants could make this 2 million. The estimate of the number of illegals in Britain is clearly critical. The Report recognises (page 36) that the consensus among informed observers has been that those who stay beyond the validity of their visas are likely to be a much larger group than those who entered illegally. However, it then estimates that the total number of both categories from 2001-7 at only 50,000 (page 42). This is an absurdly low estimate. In that period approximately 12 million visas had been issued to applicants who, by definition, pose a risk of overstaying (that is why they need a visa). The GLA assume that less than 1 in 200 will overstay despite the widely known fact that there is no check on departures. If, in fact, 1 in 20 overstayed this would approximately double their central estimate to over 1 million. All these people once granted settlement would be able to bring over their families or their future spouses. In due course, that could well amount to some 2 million people. 3 A further weakness of the Report is the exclusion of any consideration of those who are now here legally but are working illegally. http://www.migrationwatchuk.co.uk/BriefingPaper/document/166 I have no idea if this is right or wrong as I do not have time or the resources to check it, but I am sceptical about stats in general, whether from the Independent or not. Until there is a very clear case made about the contribution that immigrants make both in financial and other benefits on one side, with verifiable figures, and on the other side the cost to the UK in terms of finance and other downsides, again with verifiable figures, which I don't think has ever been produced, people will go on believing what they want to believe and there is very little tangible evidence to contradict whatever view they hold. |