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Topic: Osbourne's Mansion Tax
Posted by: Tom Pike
Date/Time: 02/05/15 18:58:00

Lorne, the CEBR figure of £350k revenue loss was calculated when the stamp duty was 7%. Putting that 7% value into your erroneous calculation to make a comparison gives a figure of £700m. You're way off on the number due to the errors I've detailed.

In fact the Centre of Policy Studies, in the link you provided, estimates the revenue loss after the new stamp-duty rate of 12% came in as 1/6 of the take, so £180m of the estimated £1.1bn revenue. That might be expected as the the change in stamp duty would depress prices before any mansion tax was applied, reducing the additional effect. It does, however, prompt the question as to the relative effects of last December's stamp-duty increase and the proposed mansion tax.

It's not so difficult to estimate how much of Labour's proposed mansion tax Osbourne has already sneaked in. He upped stamp duty from 7 to 12% at the top end, so for a £3.5m property that's an additional £175k on the sale collected on average every ten years, using your estimates. Ignoring a discount rate for the moment, that's an equivalent annual tax of £17.5k. The mansion tax will collect £1.1bn a year from your estimated 100,000  houses, or £11k a year. Even applying a 2.5% discount rate, at £14k a year present value that's still higher than the mansion tax.

So Osbourne has played a blinder. While misdirecting just about everyone about Labour's mansion tax, he has actually introduced in plain sight a larger effective tax on high-value properties.

Of course the Conservatives won't admit this, and both Labour and the Lib-Dems would like to pitch the mansion tax as their own popular measure, but George got there first!


Entire Thread
TopicDate PostedPosted By
Mansion / Property tax question for Ruth Cadbury / Guy Lambert29/04/15 09:38:00 Lorne Gifford
   Re:Mansion / Property tax question for Ruth Cadbury / Guy Lambert29/04/15 11:03:00 Adrian Irving
   Re:Mansion / Property tax question for Ruth Cadbury / Guy Lambert29/04/15 11:43:00 Richard Greenhough
   Re:Mansion / Property tax question for Ruth Cadbury / Guy Lambert29/04/15 14:50:00 Lorne Gifford
      Re:Re:Mansion / Property tax question for Ruth Cadbury / Guy Lambert29/04/15 15:54:00 Richard Greenhough
      Re:Re:Mansion / Property tax question for Ruth Cadbury / Guy Lambert29/04/15 16:02:00 Paul Green
         David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 29/04/15 16:10:00 Claudia Jachtmann
            Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 29/04/15 16:57:00 Lorne Gifford
               Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 29/04/15 17:55:00 Peter Millman
                  Re:Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 30/04/15 08:17:00 Lorne Gifford
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 30/04/15 10:26:00 Colin Jordan
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 30/04/15 14:20:00 Guy Lambert
                           Re:Labour's con-trick30/04/15 14:27:00 Richard Greenhough
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 30/04/15 14:28:00 Lorne Gifford
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:please call it by its's appropriate  name 30/04/15 14:35:00 Adrian Irving
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 30/04/15 14:41:00 Lorne Gifford
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 30/04/15 18:40:00 David McLoughlin
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 30/04/15 21:41:00 Lorne Gifford
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 30/04/15 21:59:00 Lorne Gifford
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 30/04/15 22:05:00 Pete Mayes
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 30/04/15 22:18:00 Steve Taylor
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 30/04/15 23:14:00 Pete Mayes
                                                Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 01/05/15 13:08:00 Jonathan Bingham
                                                   Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 01/05/15 13:39:00 Lorne Gifford
                                                      Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 01/05/15 14:00:00 Tom Pike
                                                      Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 01/05/15 14:07:00 Steve Taylor
                                                      Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 01/05/15 14:29:00 Jonathan Bingham
                                                         Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 01/05/15 14:37:00 Lorne Gifford
                                                            Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 01/05/15 14:48:00 Jonathan Bingham
                                                               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 01/05/15 15:02:00 Lorne Gifford
                                                                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 01/05/15 15:43:00 Jonathan Bingham
                                                                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 01/05/15 15:44:00 Jonathan Bingham
                                                                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 01/05/15 15:59:00 Lorne Gifford
                                                                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:David McLoughlin has a direct line into Ruth Cadbury 01/05/15 16:20:00 Jonathan Bingham
                              CEBR figures and effects of a Mansion Tax01/05/15 07:32:00 Tom Pike
                                 Re:CEBR figures and effects of a Mansion Tax01/05/15 08:27:00 Lorne Gifford
                                    Re:Re:CEBR figures and effects of a Mansion Tax01/05/15 10:00:00 Tom Pike
                                       Re:Re:Re:CEBR figures and effects of a Mansion Tax01/05/15 10:13:00 Lorne Gifford
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:CEBR figures and effects of a Mansion Tax01/05/15 10:48:00 Paul Green
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:CEBR figures and effects of a Mansion Tax01/05/15 10:59:00 Lorne Gifford
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:CEBR figures and effects of a Mansion Tax01/05/15 11:28:00 Tom Pike
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:CEBR figures and effects of a Mansion Tax01/05/15 11:10:00 Tom Pike
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:CEBR figures and effects of a Mansion Tax02/05/15 17:13:00 Lorne Gifford
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:CEBR figures and effects of a Mansion Tax02/05/15 17:15:00 Lorne Gifford
                                                Osbourne's Mansion Tax02/05/15 18:58:00 Tom Pike
                                                   Re:Osbourne's Mansion Tax02/05/15 19:30:00 Alan Clark
                                                      Re:Re:Osbourne's Mansion Tax02/05/15 21:07:00 Steve Taylor
                                                   Re:Osbourne's Mansion Tax02/05/15 19:34:00 Lorne Gifford
                                                      Re:Re:Osbourne's Mansion Tax02/05/15 20:33:00 Tom Pike
                                                         Re:Re:Re:Osbourne's Mansion Tax02/05/15 21:41:00 Lorne Gifford
                                                            Re:Re:Re:Re:Osborne's Mansion Tax03/05/15 10:18:00 Tom Pike
   Re:Mansion / Property tax question for Ruth Cadbury / Guy Lambert01/05/15 11:04:00 Adrian Irving
      Re:Re:Mansion / Property tax question for Ruth Cadbury / Guy Lambert01/05/15 11:31:00 David McLoughlin
         Re:Re:Re:Mansion / Property tax question for Ruth Cadbury / Guy Lambert01/05/15 11:54:00 Paul Green
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Mansion / Property tax question for Ruth Cadbury / Guy Lambert01/05/15 11:59:00 Lorne Gifford
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Mansion / Property tax question for Ruth Cadbury / Guy Lambert01/05/15 13:28:00 Tom Pike
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Mansion / Property tax question for Ruth Cadbury / Guy Lambert01/05/15 13:46:00 Lorne Gifford
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Mansion / Property tax question for Ruth Cadbury / Guy Lambert01/05/15 14:23:00 Tom Pike
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Mansion / Property tax question for Ruth Cadbury / Guy Lambert01/05/15 15:25:00 Richard Greenhough
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Mansion / Property tax question for Ruth Cadbury / Guy Lambert01/05/15 13:46:00 Adrian Irving

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