| Topic: | Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:What about Ukraine | |
| Posted by: | Francis Rowe | |
| Date/Time: | 20/11/23 13:44:00 |
| The implication that the Ukrainians have lost so many men in younger generations that they are being forced to deploy the elderly seems very misleading to me. The country exempts students and fathers with three or more young children so a higher proportion of older men will be drafted. If the attrition was as bad as people are suggesting the average age would be falling as teenagers were being thrown into the front line as soon as they were old enough. That's not to say the scale of loss of life isn't horrific but the important point is that, however bad it is, this doesn't seem to have dented the Ukrainians determination to get all their territory back. Independent polls show resolve strengthening rather than the reverse. I'm no military expert but listen to podcasts by people who are and Janice is right to say that the Ukrainians are making slow but steady progress through the literally millions of mines that have been scattered across their lands. It's hugely disappointing that they didn't make the breakthrough to Melitopol this summer and autumn but this should have been entirely predictable given they lacked the air superiority that is a pre-condition for success in overrunning the carefully prepared defensive lines that the Russians have built. However, this ignores what are perhaps more significant strategic successes over the same period including driving the Russian navy to the eastern fringes of the Black Sea and the bringing into service of long distance missiles which makes and increasing portion of the land they have occupied untenable for the invader. It is going to be a cold hard winter in Crimea even with the land bridge still open in the south and the attrition on supplies, munitions, helicopters and air defence makes the peninsula more vulnerable by the day. The Kerch Bridge is no longer a viable route for large scale supply. Basically the objective of the offensive was to make the logistics of defending Crimea more difficult and that overall aim has been achieved. In the Spring the Ukrainians will be facing a much weaker enemy than they are up against right now and F-16s will be arriving. Partisan activity is on the increase and the Russians are struggling to replace lost equipment. Everyone who would dearly love the Ukrainians to triumph has learned not to be overly optimistic about the future but the suggestion that this war is over is clearly preposterous. |