| Topic: | Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:cuts no ice | |
| Posted by: | Pete Higginson | |
| Date/Time: | 30/06/08 16:37:00 |
| Reminds me of day one in Statistics in college, many years ago, where the lecturer pointed out that there was a significant correlation between arrest for drunkeness in Sauchiehall street in Glasgow and attendance at the local Kirk. He pointed out that there were three options. One that people were remorseful for their overindulgence and sought forgiveness,i.e A causes B(unlikely but possible) Two that the sermons were so boring that no-one could face them without a few pints of heavy inside them, and they overdid it. i.e. B causes A.( also unlikely but possible) Third, they are not directly linked, other than through some third factor, in this case they both tend to happen on Sunday morning, which leads to the correlation. In short you have to be very careful indeed not to confuse correlation between two events and a direct cause and effect relationship. I don't really believe it, but in the absence of facts I could just as well argue that the milder climate we have been having has increased food growth and caused the boom in population which has naturally increased the total amount of energy we are consuming. Furthermore I am getting fed up of being told the majority of scientists believe it, therefore it must be true. If you had asked a hundred people in the eighteen hundreds then the majority would have believed in the virgin birth, the holy trinity and resurrection but that would not have proven them true either. Yes there is some evidence there, yes it is a likely scenario, but until it is PROVEN rather than ASSUMED I will keep an open mind. During the period 1990-2000 for example, when energy consumption was increasing at a very high rate there was virtually no increase at all in average surface temperature. Would it be wise to take some precautions anyway to be on the safe side? Yes I thimk it probably would, but I resent being considered inferior because I don't blindly believe without facts to support such a belief. |