Forum Message

Topic: Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's
Posted by: Joanna Biddolph
Date/Time: 05/07/19 22:20:00

That's the trouble with statistics. It depends which statistics. The cycleway travels along Green Lanes and Palmers Green and Winchmore Hill so facts about closures along the length of the cycleway present a very different picture if the only stretch you use is the Green Lanes section. Here, again, is the information posted above, reporting facts about the effect of the cycleway in Green Lanes, Palmers Green and Winchmore Hill; it's very different from the statistics you present:

Specifically you said:

“As the High Road task force reaches its first birthday with unfortunately more empty shops than we had a year ago, maybe attention should be paid to the how retail has responded at Winchmore Hill, Enfield, see attached. With the coming of the cycle lanes there, Winchmore Hill has enjoyed increased occupancy rates, independent restaurant expansion and that bellweather of a thriving high street, a new Waitrose!

It would be good if the High Road task force had similar successes to highlight.”

I would love to know where you obtained data that allowed you to form this conclusion. It is difficult to think of ways in which you could be further from the truth.

1.      Occupancy rates. The Regeneris report commissioned ahead of the mini-Holland work reported that since the local economy in both Winchmore Hill and Palmers Green were both so good it would be difficult to demonstrate any benefit of the scheme. In June 2018 Enfield Council commissioned a research company, The Retail Group, to conduct a short survey of business owners and managers in Winchmore Hill to understand: "how is Winchmore Hill performing" and "to capture the issues that are holding back performance growth, as well as the improvements wanted by retailers in the centre". It concluded in its report (The Winchmore Hill District Centre Retail Healthcheck) that both Winchmore Hill North and South retail centres needed support, with high vacancy rates (although they do note that some of these pre-date mini-Holland) and trade being down for over half of their respondents. There are now 18 vacant units across the two ‘main’ Winchmore Hill shopping areas. The one area that has no vacancies is Winchmore Hill Green – but this is well away from the A105 where the cycle lane runs.

2.     Turnover. You don’t mention turnover and footfall but obviously this is a key issue. The Retail Group found that 54% of premises reported turnover being down on the previous year. More recently, a study of Winchmore Hill conducted by researchers at UCL (Green Lanes 574–890 High Street Report) reported that “enterprises were first asked to compare their current turnover with an average level of three years ago (before the Mini-Holland scheme was implemented). Strikingly, most of the businesses reported decrease of customers, with many experiencing two-fold contraction.”  They go on to say:

“Most, but not every enterprise reported the bike lane as a direct cause of the decrease. Some have noted that the nature of their business (such as real estate) is not dependent on the number of parkings available, hence the impact on them was indirect. Rather, they have noticed an overall footfall decrease in the area, that in turn indirectly affected number of visits to their units“.

They report that 8 out of 12 of the enterprises interviewed identified some degree of decrease in the amount of customers they now see, and they reproduce a notice posted by one long-established business that has closed as a result of the developments:

The message does, rightly, note that other factors are in play, primarily business rates, but at a time when they needed more help, the council persisted in the mini-Holland scheme. The Regeneris economic impact assessment conducted prior to the project’s commencing stated that a loss of 7% in income would be disastrous for small businesses. Shops were assured that any disruption to the local economy would last only for the duration of the roadworks. With the barriers long gone, many of the shops reported downturn in footfall and turnover of between 10% and 70%. Many of those worst affected have now closed or are in the process of leaving. Many have had to lose staff in order to remain solvent.

3.     Independent restaurant expansion. Yes, there is one independent restaurant that has expanded – I’m assuming you’re referring to Giovanni? – yes, they have expanded but this is nothing to do with the cycle lanes. They were and remain a popular local restaurant, and so when the stationery shop next door closed down they decided to expand. If you visited the area you would find they are surrounded by empty shops and businesses for sale. Several other restaurants have been lost. Most of the businesses that have already left, or are in the process or selling up and leaving, usually say that there are other factors involved in their decision (as per the notice above), but mini-Holland has been either ‘the final straw’ or the ‘final nail in the coffin’. A popular local delicatessen is the latest of these.

4.     ‘A new Waitrose’. It is this last comment that really makes me wonder where you obtained your ‘data’. No-one with local knowledge would say this. The reality is that there always was a Waitrose, but it was in Palmers Green. When the new retail premises in Winchmore Hill became available, Waitrose closed the Palmers Green store and moved (about two miles) along the road to Winchmore Hill. New, yes, but in no way a ‘bellweather incident’ and the sum total of Waitroses in Palmers Green and Winchmore Hill remains 1.

The UCL researchers conclude that “Local businesses, campaigners and residents would welcome the opportunity to provide a more detailed analysis and urgent remedial action is required to mitigate the risk of further business failures, accidents and falls, congestion and increased pollution which have resulted from this scheme”

This, of course, is the one thing that TfL resists, as it cannot risk having the real impact of the scheme exposed. I note too, that while TfL have amassed a great deal of evidence on their ‘hub’ on the impact of environmental improvements (including, in one particularly desperate case, the impact of the Pompidou Centre on the surrounding area - well, how very, very like our own dear A105 mini-Holland scheme that is!) in several of those reports the schemes reported as environmental improvements are ones that actually improved traffic flow and parking facilities. Yes, unlike TfL, who appear to merely post this stuff, I have actually bothered to read the reports they think support their case; if you plough your way through them you will find that there is virtually nothing that demonstrates any real beneficial impact of cycle lanes.

5.     Transport. If we veer away from retail issues for a moment and consider transport, a recent Sustrans report obtained under FOI concludes that the A1010 mini-Holland scheme has negative  outcomes for everyone except cyclists. Bus journey times are significantly lengthened and crossing the road becomes more dangerous. I presume someone at TfL DID read that one, as it’s somehow failed to make it onto the TfL ‘information hub’.

And it is noteworthy that TfL have omitted, too, to include the two retail reports that they themselves commissioned of shoppers, with the more recent of the two including samples in the three mini-Holland boroughs. Those reports are noteworthy because they find, first, that cyclists really do spend the least of all shopper groups in one case and less than all groups except train/tube travellers in the second; and second, they also found that cyclists are most likely to buy online. Furthermore, hardly any shoppers thought that cycle lanes would be an improvement to their high street – in fact it was such a small proportion in the second survey that it could not be reported with any statistical reliability, hence was left out of the table of improvements suggested by shoppers.

Entire Thread
TopicDate PostedPosted By
Improving retail on the High Road?03/07/19 16:57:00 Tom Pike
   Re:Improving retail on the High Road?03/07/19 18:45:00 Francis Rowe
      Re:Re:Improving retail on the High Road?03/07/19 18:50:00 Jennifer Selig
         Reply03/07/19 19:02:00 Tom Pike
            Re:Reply03/07/19 19:09:00 Alex Shpinkov
               Re:Re:Reply03/07/19 19:13:00 Tom Pike
            Re:Reply03/07/19 19:13:00 Loraine Pemberton
               Reply03/07/19 19:32:00 Tom Pike
                  Re:Reply03/07/19 20:02:00 Loraine Pemberton
                     Reply03/07/19 20:33:00 Tom Pike
                     Re:Re:Reply03/07/19 20:40:00 Tony Smart
                     Bike Parking - a reminder03/07/19 21:51:00 Ken Munn
                        Re:Bike Parking - a reminder04/07/19 22:30:00 Andy Pease
                           Re:Re:Bike Parking - a reminder05/07/19 08:50:00 Ken Munn
                        Re:Bike Parking - a reminder05/07/19 13:11:00 David Lesniak
                           Re:Re:Bike Parking - a reminder05/07/19 14:43:00 Ken Munn
                              Re:Re:Re:Bike Parking - a reminder06/07/19 13:53:00 David Lesniak
                     Re:Re:Reply04/07/19 09:33:00 Tom Trower
                  Re:Reply05/07/19 06:17:00 David Lesniak
                     Chiswick redux05/07/19 07:20:00 Tom Pike
                        Fact checking Tom Pike05/07/19 13:15:00 David Lesniak
                     Re:Re:Reply05/07/19 08:36:00 Tony Smart
                        Re:Re:Re:Reply05/07/19 09:18:00 Paul Campbell
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply05/07/19 09:38:00 Tony Smart
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply05/07/19 13:20:00 David Lesniak
                        Re:Re:Re:Reply05/07/19 13:17:00 David Lesniak
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply05/07/19 13:45:00 Tony Smart
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 13:56:00 David Lesniak
               Reply03/07/19 19:45:00 Tom Pike
                  Re:Reply04/07/19 07:40:00 Francis Rowe
   Re: reply - but where are the cyclists in the photos ?04/07/19 08:37:00 Loraine Pemberton
      Re:Re: reply - but where are the cyclists in the photos ?04/07/19 08:47:00 Ken Munn
         Re:Re:Re: reply - but where are the cyclists in the photos ?04/07/19 08:58:00 Ken Munn
            Re:Re:Re:Re: reply - but where are the cyclists in the photos ?04/07/19 09:19:00 Loraine Pemberton
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: reply - but where are the cyclists in the photos ?04/07/19 09:34:00 Ken Munn
      Reply04/07/19 09:14:00 Tom Pike
         Re:Reply04/07/19 09:21:00 Loraine Pemberton
            High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill04/07/19 10:15:00 Tom Pike
               Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill04/07/19 11:02:00 Loraine Pemberton
                  Re:Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill04/07/19 11:21:00 Tom Pike
                     Reply04/07/19 21:00:00 Tom Pike
                        Re:Reply04/07/19 21:15:00 Georgina Flint
                           High Road without cars04/07/19 21:52:00 Tom Pike
                              Reply05/07/19 00:11:00 Tom Pike
                                 Nice trees05/07/19 07:17:00 Ken Munn
                                    Re:Nice trees05/07/19 13:36:00 David Lesniak
                                       Re:Re:Nice trees05/07/19 19:22:00 Claire Moran
                                 Re:Reply05/07/19 07:42:00 Tony Smart
                              Re:High Road without cars05/07/19 00:32:00 Joanna Biddolph
                                 Re:Re:High Road without cars05/07/19 00:56:00 Tom Pike
                                    Reply05/07/19 09:12:00 Andrew OSullivan
                                       Re:Reply05/07/19 09:45:00 Ken Munn
                                          Reply05/07/19 09:50:00 Andrew OSullivan
                                    Re:Re:Re:High Road without cars05/07/19 13:41:00 David Lesniak
                        Re:Reply05/07/19 13:32:00 David Lesniak
               Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill05/07/19 13:28:00 David Lesniak
                  Re:Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill05/07/19 16:48:00 Tom Pike
                     Re:Re:Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill05/07/19 16:51:00 Tom Pike
                     Re:Re:Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill05/07/19 17:02:00 Loraine Pemberton
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill05/07/19 17:17:00 Ken Munn
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill05/07/19 17:31:00 Loraine Pemberton
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill05/07/19 17:48:00 Ken Munn
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill05/07/19 17:50:00 Janice Evans
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill05/07/19 17:54:00 Janice Evans
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill05/07/19 18:00:00 Janice Evans
                     Re:Re:Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill06/07/19 13:58:00 David Lesniak
   Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 09:52:00 Loraine Pemberton
      Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 10:01:00 Ken Munn
         Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 10:09:00 Paul Campbell
            Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 10:49:00 Loraine Pemberton
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 10:55:00 Paul Campbell
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 11:21:00 Janice Evans
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 11:38:00 Tom Pike
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 11:48:00 Paul Campbell
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 13:08:00 Janice Evans
                              Janice sums up the problem05/07/19 16:47:00 Ken Munn
                                 Re:Janice sums up the problem05/07/19 17:42:00 Janice Evans
                                 Re:Janice sums up the problem05/07/19 18:13:00 Loraine Pemberton
                                    Re:Re:Janice sums up the problem05/07/19 18:56:00 Ken Munn
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 13:45:00 David Lesniak
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 13:56:00 Paul Campbell
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 06/07/19 14:07:00 David Lesniak
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 06/07/19 14:19:00 Paul Campbell
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 06/07/19 14:47:00 David Lesniak
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 06/07/19 23:58:00 Paul Campbell
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 07/07/19 03:44:00 Tony Smart
                                                Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 07/07/19 17:25:00 David Lesniak
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 07/07/19 17:23:00 David Lesniak
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 11:50:00 Janice Evans
                        Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 13:30:00 Loraine Pemberton
                           Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 13:32:00 Janice Evans
                           Busy, busier, busiest05/07/19 14:12:00 Ken Munn
                              Re:Busy, busier, busiest05/07/19 19:34:00 Robert Fish
      Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 10:47:00 Tom Pike
         Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 10:52:00 Ken Munn
         Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 13:49:00 David Lesniak
            Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 14:35:00 Tom Pike
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 22:20:00 Joanna Biddolph
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 22:59:00 Steve Taylor
                  Reply06/07/19 00:22:00 Tom Pike
                     Re:Reply06/07/19 02:15:00 Joanna Biddolph
                        Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 03:00:00 Michael Robinson
                           Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 07:06:00 Ken Munn
                        Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 07:19:00 Tony Smart
                           Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 07:45:00 Peter Evans
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 07:58:00 Tony Smart
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 09:52:00 Janice Evans
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 10:07:00 Ken Munn
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 10:31:00 Janice Evans
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 10:51:00 Ken Munn
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 11:45:00 Janice Evans
                                                Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 12:16:00 Janice Evans
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 14:18:00 David Lesniak
                           Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 14:15:00 David Lesniak
                        Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 09:03:00 Tom Pike
                           Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 10:54:00 Steve Taylor
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 12:09:00 Tom Pike
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 12:41:00 Steve Taylor
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 13:40:00 Ken Munn
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 13:53:00 Janice Evans
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 13:56:00 Ken Munn
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 14:09:00 Janice Evans
                                                Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 14:36:00 Janice Evans
                                                Reply07/07/19 17:32:00 Carl Wynne
                                                   Re:Reply07/07/19 22:13:00 Janice Evans
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 14:49:00 David Lesniak
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 14:00:00 Tom Pike
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 14:53:00 David Lesniak
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 14:58:00 Tom Pike
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply07/07/19 17:33:00 David Lesniak
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 14:38:00 David Lesniak
                           Tom Pike's reply to Cllr Biddolph06/07/19 14:28:00 David Lesniak
                     Re:Reply06/07/19 14:11:00 David Lesniak
                        Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 14:46:00 Tom Pike
                           Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 14:56:00 David Lesniak
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 15:10:00 Tom Pike
                                 I'll ask again Joanna Biddolph06/07/19 22:35:00 Tony Smart
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply07/07/19 17:43:00 David Lesniak
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply07/07/19 21:21:00 David Roberts
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply - Streetview photos07/07/19 06:40:00 Loraine Pemberton
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply - Streetview photos07/07/19 08:17:00 Ken Munn
                                    Citizens' Health More Important, Madrid 08/07/19 09:39:00 Angela Peel

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