Forum Message

Topic: Re:Re:Reply
Posted by: Tom Pike
Date/Time: 06/07/19 09:03:00

Hi Joanna,

Please read more carefully what I have written, rather than assume your own meaning. The issue is not whether any particular business can be shown to have benefitted from having a cycle lane built outside its premises. It’s whether the introduction of a cycle lane will damage retail, which is what you are asserting.

The independent Pizzeria, Giovanni’s, has expanded since the cycle lane was being built in Winchmore Hill. Waitrose decided to relocate, with the considerable costs involved,  to a redeveloped site with the new cycle lane being built outside its premises. These business developments may be independent or indeed despite the introduction of the cycleways, but nevertheless they are evidence that these businesses are investing and expanding along the cycleways.

I have already read what you have written, and I accept that the traders you spoke to along the new cycle lanes think that they have damaged their businesses. However, disentangling the general decline in high street retail from any particular effect is not straightforward, and that’s why I used the readily accessible and objective measure of shop premise vacancies from Streetview to provide a measure of the health of retail. I’m not claiming that “new openings indicate business success”, as you assert. Clearly they do not and that is one reason why I looked at empty premises.

I chose Winchmore Hill simply because it was mentioned as an example of where shops were lying empty as a result of the new cycleways. The cycleway is much closer to the shops than CW9 would be on the High Road, and so this location set a reasonable test of the hypothesis, and not of my choice, of how much damage a new cycleway was causing.

As it turns out, the number of shops on either side of Winchmore Broadway was comparable to the number of premises on the southside of the High Road, and I just took a matching number from Heathfield Terrace east to compare with the 44 in Winchmore Hill. Comparing over the best matched period to date from Streetview, the number of vacancies in Winchmore Hill had dropped from 2 to 1, while for the High Road it had increased from 1 to 5. Hence in this instance we see no evidence for the assertion that a cycleway will lead to increased business failures.

It would be possible to expand the number of shops considered east and west along the High Road, and north and south along Greens Lane, and of course there would be more empty premises in both cases. But for a comparable number of shops in Winchmore Hill and the southside of Chiswick High Road we already have good enough statistics to say with some confidence that for the most up-to date matching period on StreetView the new cycleway in Winchmore Hill is not associated with an increase in the number of empty shops, taking the High Road as a comparator.

Finally, on air quality, I hope I detect a hint of acceptance from you that TfL are not predicting an increase in pollution along the High Road. As you have repeatedly asserted the opposite, it would be preferable for you to make this plain to your constituents, correcting your own misinformation on this point. In fact the report TfL commissioned modelled only a comparatively insignificant reduction in pollution with CW9. However the modelling did not take account of modal shift from motor vehicles to bikes. There is clearly considerable potential here: during the morning peak times the number of cyclists is already more than half the number (61%) of cars travelling east along the High Road. On CSEW along the Embankment and through the City, capacity has increased at peak times when you consider the sum of bikes and motor vehicles; as you have seen, pollution levels have dropped. This is encouraging for improved air quality with CW9 along the High Road.

The prospect that CW9 will bring improved air quality, lower emissions, and safer cycling relies on clear evidence, not dogma. I accept there are concerns that CW9 will bring considerable damage to retail, but the evidence above puts these concerns into perspective.

Entire Thread
TopicDate PostedPosted By
Improving retail on the High Road?03/07/19 16:57:00 Tom Pike
   Re:Improving retail on the High Road?03/07/19 18:45:00 Francis Rowe
      Re:Re:Improving retail on the High Road?03/07/19 18:50:00 Jennifer Selig
         Reply03/07/19 19:02:00 Tom Pike
            Re:Reply03/07/19 19:09:00 Alex Shpinkov
               Re:Re:Reply03/07/19 19:13:00 Tom Pike
            Re:Reply03/07/19 19:13:00 Loraine Pemberton
               Reply03/07/19 19:32:00 Tom Pike
                  Re:Reply03/07/19 20:02:00 Loraine Pemberton
                     Reply03/07/19 20:33:00 Tom Pike
                     Re:Re:Reply03/07/19 20:40:00 Tony Smart
                     Bike Parking - a reminder03/07/19 21:51:00 Ken Munn
                        Re:Bike Parking - a reminder04/07/19 22:30:00 Andy Pease
                           Re:Re:Bike Parking - a reminder05/07/19 08:50:00 Ken Munn
                        Re:Bike Parking - a reminder05/07/19 13:11:00 David Lesniak
                           Re:Re:Bike Parking - a reminder05/07/19 14:43:00 Ken Munn
                              Re:Re:Re:Bike Parking - a reminder06/07/19 13:53:00 David Lesniak
                     Re:Re:Reply04/07/19 09:33:00 Tom Trower
                  Re:Reply05/07/19 06:17:00 David Lesniak
                     Chiswick redux05/07/19 07:20:00 Tom Pike
                        Fact checking Tom Pike05/07/19 13:15:00 David Lesniak
                     Re:Re:Reply05/07/19 08:36:00 Tony Smart
                        Re:Re:Re:Reply05/07/19 09:18:00 Paul Campbell
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply05/07/19 09:38:00 Tony Smart
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply05/07/19 13:20:00 David Lesniak
                        Re:Re:Re:Reply05/07/19 13:17:00 David Lesniak
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply05/07/19 13:45:00 Tony Smart
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 13:56:00 David Lesniak
               Reply03/07/19 19:45:00 Tom Pike
                  Re:Reply04/07/19 07:40:00 Francis Rowe
   Re: reply - but where are the cyclists in the photos ?04/07/19 08:37:00 Loraine Pemberton
      Re:Re: reply - but where are the cyclists in the photos ?04/07/19 08:47:00 Ken Munn
         Re:Re:Re: reply - but where are the cyclists in the photos ?04/07/19 08:58:00 Ken Munn
            Re:Re:Re:Re: reply - but where are the cyclists in the photos ?04/07/19 09:19:00 Loraine Pemberton
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: reply - but where are the cyclists in the photos ?04/07/19 09:34:00 Ken Munn
      Reply04/07/19 09:14:00 Tom Pike
         Re:Reply04/07/19 09:21:00 Loraine Pemberton
            High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill04/07/19 10:15:00 Tom Pike
               Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill04/07/19 11:02:00 Loraine Pemberton
                  Re:Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill04/07/19 11:21:00 Tom Pike
                     Reply04/07/19 21:00:00 Tom Pike
                        Re:Reply04/07/19 21:15:00 Georgina Flint
                           High Road without cars04/07/19 21:52:00 Tom Pike
                              Reply05/07/19 00:11:00 Tom Pike
                                 Nice trees05/07/19 07:17:00 Ken Munn
                                    Re:Nice trees05/07/19 13:36:00 David Lesniak
                                       Re:Re:Nice trees05/07/19 19:22:00 Claire Moran
                                 Re:Reply05/07/19 07:42:00 Tony Smart
                              Re:High Road without cars05/07/19 00:32:00 Joanna Biddolph
                                 Re:Re:High Road without cars05/07/19 00:56:00 Tom Pike
                                    Reply05/07/19 09:12:00 Andrew OSullivan
                                       Re:Reply05/07/19 09:45:00 Ken Munn
                                          Reply05/07/19 09:50:00 Andrew OSullivan
                                    Re:Re:Re:High Road without cars05/07/19 13:41:00 David Lesniak
                        Re:Reply05/07/19 13:32:00 David Lesniak
               Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill05/07/19 13:28:00 David Lesniak
                  Re:Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill05/07/19 16:48:00 Tom Pike
                     Re:Re:Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill05/07/19 16:51:00 Tom Pike
                     Re:Re:Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill05/07/19 17:02:00 Loraine Pemberton
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill05/07/19 17:17:00 Ken Munn
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill05/07/19 17:31:00 Loraine Pemberton
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill05/07/19 17:48:00 Ken Munn
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill05/07/19 17:50:00 Janice Evans
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill05/07/19 17:54:00 Janice Evans
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill05/07/19 18:00:00 Janice Evans
                     Re:Re:Re:High Road Task Force and Winchmore Hill06/07/19 13:58:00 David Lesniak
   Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 09:52:00 Loraine Pemberton
      Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 10:01:00 Ken Munn
         Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 10:09:00 Paul Campbell
            Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 10:49:00 Loraine Pemberton
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 10:55:00 Paul Campbell
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 11:21:00 Janice Evans
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 11:38:00 Tom Pike
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 11:48:00 Paul Campbell
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 13:08:00 Janice Evans
                              Janice sums up the problem05/07/19 16:47:00 Ken Munn
                                 Re:Janice sums up the problem05/07/19 17:42:00 Janice Evans
                                 Re:Janice sums up the problem05/07/19 18:13:00 Loraine Pemberton
                                    Re:Re:Janice sums up the problem05/07/19 18:56:00 Ken Munn
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 13:45:00 David Lesniak
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 13:56:00 Paul Campbell
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 06/07/19 14:07:00 David Lesniak
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 06/07/19 14:19:00 Paul Campbell
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 06/07/19 14:47:00 David Lesniak
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 06/07/19 23:58:00 Paul Campbell
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 07/07/19 03:44:00 Tony Smart
                                                Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 07/07/19 17:25:00 David Lesniak
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 07/07/19 17:23:00 David Lesniak
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 11:50:00 Janice Evans
                        Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 13:30:00 Loraine Pemberton
                           Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 13:32:00 Janice Evans
                           Busy, busier, busiest05/07/19 14:12:00 Ken Munn
                              Re:Busy, busier, busiest05/07/19 19:34:00 Robert Fish
      Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 10:47:00 Tom Pike
         Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 10:52:00 Ken Munn
         Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 13:49:00 David Lesniak
            Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 14:35:00 Tom Pike
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 22:20:00 Joanna Biddolph
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Giovanni's 05/07/19 22:59:00 Steve Taylor
                  Reply06/07/19 00:22:00 Tom Pike
                     Re:Reply06/07/19 02:15:00 Joanna Biddolph
                        Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 03:00:00 Michael Robinson
                           Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 07:06:00 Ken Munn
                        Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 07:19:00 Tony Smart
                           Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 07:45:00 Peter Evans
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 07:58:00 Tony Smart
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 09:52:00 Janice Evans
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 10:07:00 Ken Munn
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 10:31:00 Janice Evans
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 10:51:00 Ken Munn
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 11:45:00 Janice Evans
                                                Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 12:16:00 Janice Evans
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 14:18:00 David Lesniak
                           Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 14:15:00 David Lesniak
                        Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 09:03:00 Tom Pike
                           Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 10:54:00 Steve Taylor
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 12:09:00 Tom Pike
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 12:41:00 Steve Taylor
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 13:40:00 Ken Munn
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 13:53:00 Janice Evans
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 13:56:00 Ken Munn
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 14:09:00 Janice Evans
                                                Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 14:36:00 Janice Evans
                                                Reply07/07/19 17:32:00 Carl Wynne
                                                   Re:Reply07/07/19 22:13:00 Janice Evans
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 14:49:00 David Lesniak
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 14:00:00 Tom Pike
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 14:53:00 David Lesniak
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 14:58:00 Tom Pike
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply07/07/19 17:33:00 David Lesniak
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 14:38:00 David Lesniak
                           Tom Pike's reply to Cllr Biddolph06/07/19 14:28:00 David Lesniak
                     Re:Reply06/07/19 14:11:00 David Lesniak
                        Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 14:46:00 Tom Pike
                           Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 14:56:00 David Lesniak
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/07/19 15:10:00 Tom Pike
                                 I'll ask again Joanna Biddolph06/07/19 22:35:00 Tony Smart
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply07/07/19 17:43:00 David Lesniak
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply07/07/19 21:21:00 David Roberts
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply - Streetview photos07/07/19 06:40:00 Loraine Pemberton
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply - Streetview photos07/07/19 08:17:00 Ken Munn
                                    Citizens' Health More Important, Madrid 08/07/19 09:39:00 Angela Peel

Forum Home