| Topic: | Re:Strong and Stable | |
| Posted by: | Bernard Allen | |
| Date/Time: | 19/09/17 13:12:00 |
| You can make claim and counter claim until the cows come home, quiet honestly nobody knows whats going to happen. The financial industry isn't really the most reliable of institutions to go by. Thomson Reuters Trust The true impact of Brexit will only become clear in ten or twenty years because most firms are implementing a two-stage contingency plan, senior executives in London said. The first phase will involve relatively small numbers to make sure the requisite licences and infrastructure are in place. The next will require longer-term thinking about what the companies’ European business will look like. The final impact will also depend on the details of the Brexit deal, Europe’s economic growth and whether Frankfurt and Dublin prove to be successful alternatives to London. Previous forecasts for jobs losses in a hard Brexit scenario have ranged from about 30,000 jobs estimated by the Brussels-based Bruegel research group in February to up to 75,000 by Oliver Wyman in October and as many as 232,000 by London Stock Exchange chief executive Xavier Rolet in January. The Bruegel estimate was for a three-year period starting from when divorce proceedings were formally triggered in March, according to Dirk Schoenmaker, an author of the report. The Oliver Wyman forecast is up to 2022. The London Stock Exchange forecast is up to 2024. Some politicians, financiers and academics say bankers have exaggerated the threat to the economy from Brexit. “Brexit presents an inconvenience to their operations but also an opportunity to wrangle tax and rule changes to stay,” according to Robert Jenkins, a professor at London Business School and a former Bank of England policymaker. “They will play this for all it’s worth.” Several banks have heavily scaled back their estimates compared with a year ago. JPMorgan, for example, is currently planning to move fewer than 1,000 roles, whereas before the Brexit referendum the bank had said about 4,000 jobs might be at risk. Paul Venables, the finance director of Hays, the largest recruiter for financial services in the City, said the job market for financial services in London is gradually improving. “Where there’s been a lot of public pronouncements from the banks, we’ve seen very little action, we’re not seeing a large number of jobs go outside of the UK to Europe,” he said. “We’re beginning to see tentative signs of that market returning to normalcy.” Reporting By Andrew MacAskill, Simon Jessop and Carolyn Cohn; additional reporting by Noor Zainab Hussain and Esha Vaish in Bengaluru and Suzanne Barlyn in New York; Editing by Sonya Hepinstall Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. |