| Topic: | Brown warns Scotland about it | |
| Posted by: | Guy Lambert | |
| Date/Time: | 13/09/14 14:01:00 |
| Joe, I'm certainly no expert on Czechoslovakia but I do know that the split was carried out without a referendum, and that it is said that both sides would have voted 'no' to a split had they been asked. I also understand that both sides are actually quite gruntled with the outcome, with the Czechs no longer grumbling about subsidising Slovakia and the Slovaks no longer grumbling about being bullied by the Czechs (this mainly gleaned from a BBC 'From Our Own Correspondent') I don't think we would have such a happy outcome of an Aye vote here, mainly because of the poisonous nature of the debate in recent weeks. The national parties have been caught on the hop because the result appeared a foregone conclusion until what was very probably one rogue poll last week: all the other polls show a no victory, albeit narrow, and evidence from previous referendums is that there will be a revival of support for the status quo when people actually enter the polling booths. You can still get nearly 4/1 from the bookies if you want to bet on Aye. In truth, I don't believe anybody has much of a clue what happens next, whether it's a yes or a no vote: my opinion is that there is no realistic chance of a separation being concluded by early 2016, which is what the Nats want. Gordon Brown is still well regarded in Scotland and is the only UK-level politician who has much credibility in Scotland: all the rest, especially Tories, are positively toxic. |