| Topic: | Re:Why are all the main 3 parties plus the majority of the media against Scottish Independence? | |
| Posted by: | Ed Yelland | |
| Date/Time: | 09/09/14 17:49:00 |
| This from Credit Suisse analysts: "Risk of an economic crisis: In our opinion Scotland would fall into a deep recession. We believe deposit flight is both highly likely and highly problematic (with banks assets of 12x GDP) and should the BoE move to guarantee Scottish deposits, we expect it to extract a high fiscal and regulatory price (probably insisting on a primary budget surplus). The re-domiciling of the financial sector and UK public service jobs, as well as a legal dispute over North Sea oil, would further accelerate any downturn. In our opinion, as North Sea oil production slows, we estimate that the non-oil economy would need a 10% to 20% devaluation to restore competitiveness. This would require a 5% to 10% fall in wages, driven by a steep rise in unemployment." The Scots seem to think they are voting in a general election which is why much of what Alex Salmond has laboured party political issues in favour of a robust discussion of what permanent independence actually means for future generations - a perfect case in point being the "save the NHS from cuts / privatisation" nonsense that ignores the fact it's been devolved for 16 years and that the Scottish Government already have the powers to raise tax if they wish to spend more on healthcare - powers they have never used. Fortunately for Alex Salmond, the voters don't seem to understand the difference between a referendum on the future of Scotland and voting to keep the Tories out -there's a good chance that in the event of a vote for independence there will be a lasting hangover when people realise what they have actually voted on. Unfortunately that hangover will last for hundreds of years. |