| Topic: | Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Huhne pleads guilty to perverting the course of justice | |
| Posted by: | Phil Andrews | |
| Date/Time: | 05/02/13 15:21:00 |
| I don't think it should be assumed that UKIP will take only Conservative votes. The Lib Dems may be the most pro-Europe of the major parties but they are also the beneficiary of a certain amount of protest voting and UKIP fish in the same pond. Without making a moral comparison, back in the early 1970s the National Front usually performed significantly better in seats where there was no Liberal candidate. In ideological terms this makes no sense but what clearly happened was that an element of the knee-jerk protest vote seamlessly moved from one to the other. Huhne will also have been the recipient of many votes from traditional Labour supporters who acted tactically. This is less likely to happen at a by-election because the outcome will make no real difference to the composition of the House of Commons, and many Labour voters will also be angry of course about the fact that the Lib Dems are in coalition with the Tories. If I were a betting man (!) my money would be on a fairly comfortable Conservative victory, with or without Farage. |