Topic: | Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Boris Peninsula | |
Posted by: | Tim Henderson | |
Date/Time: | 20/01/12 10:21:00 |
There are a succession of DfT Aviation Passenger Forecasts and the future demand has been falling over the last few. Even so, I still think they are using unreasonably low figures for oil prices. Last summer's forecast was done using 2007 predictions from DECC which had a barrel of crude rising from $77 in 2015 to $93 in 2030 rising (!) to $93 in 2080. I gather the average over the year for 2011 was actually around $111 and DECC are now forecasting $130 for 2030 (they'll be lucky). The handling of sensitivities in the DfT forecast is also rather timid - they tend to bundle up possibilities ; so the combination of low UK GDP together with high oil prices (from other developing world demand) is one that they prefer to avoid !! |