Forum Message

Topic: Re:Re:Re:Anecdote v. data
Posted by: Francis Rowe
Date/Time: 07/10/13 15:01:00

Thomas, even by the loosest definition, Paul's 18 years of empirical data cannot be described as anecdote. As for the superiority of data over observation you would be correct if the data is being analysed objectively but if it is being used selectively to make a case then it can be dangerously misleading.

Tom Pike's argument is that there should be no Piccadilly line stop at Turnham Green because he says the line is twice as crowded as the District. To prove this he has taken the average loading on the eastbound stretch between Acton Town and South Kensington based on the ranges given on the 2008 crowding map. This is very misleading as he has deliberately chosen a specific stretch of line on which the Piccadilly will tend to be more crowded. Eastbound the Piccadilly line has many more stations prior to Acton Town than the District. Westbound there is no such effect. Also he has chosen the section on which the two lines run in parallel and obviously anyone who can will travel on the Piccadilly rather than the District on this section because it is much faster.

Overall, the only figures I could find show that in terms of passenger per mile the District line is busier than the Piccadilly line.

Tom Pike's other piece of evidence is his own observation that the Piccadilly line is often full at Hammersmith is anecdotal as his daily journey does not involve a switch at Hammersmith. People who do make this journey suggest he is exaggerating, although to be fair it was difficult to board the Piccadilly line train this morning. However the same data that he has manipulated to show his point also shows that the slower District line service despite have far fewer stops to pick up passengers eastbound and competing with a faster service, arrives at Hammersmith with an equivalent level of loading to the Piccadilly line. This piece of data is confirmed by the 'anecdotal' evidence of regular travellers.

The point may seem arcane but it does appear all through this decades long debate Transport for London and its supporters have been very keen to use statistical argument based on data they publish selectively and derived from their own sources. It seems from discussions on this thread they are slow to release other data to people advocating and improved service at Turnham Green. Sadly I believe no matter what level of response that the consultation gets by the end of today, TfL will use selective data to 'prove' that a stop shouldn't happen and there will be no change.

Entire Thread
TopicDate PostedPosted By
Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition12/09/13 13:02:00 Michael Dempsey
   Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition12/09/13 17:39:00 Penny Lillie
      Re:Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition13/09/13 11:25:00 Michael Dempsey
         Re:Re:Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition13/09/13 11:51:00 John Hickman
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition13/09/13 12:34:00 Michael Dempsey
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition13/09/13 13:05:00 Lisa Miller
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition13/09/13 13:08:00 John Hickman
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition13/09/13 17:37:00 Michael Dempsey
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition13/09/13 15:15:00 Thomas Barry
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition13/09/13 17:38:00 John Hickman
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition13/09/13 17:55:00 Richard Jennings
                  Balancing the benefits...and achieving the outcome13/09/13 18:10:00 Chris Calvi-Freeman
                     Re:Balancing the benefits...and achieving the outcome13/09/13 19:05:00 Michael Dempsey
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition14/09/13 11:59:00 Thomas Barry
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition14/09/13 12:07:00 Chris Calvi-Freeman
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition14/09/13 13:09:00 Thomas Barry
                           Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition14/09/13 13:46:00 Ian Wylie
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition15/09/13 12:52:00 Richard Jennings
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition16/09/13 09:39:00 Thomas Barry
                        Train times and padding (geeky)16/09/13 12:39:00 Thomas Barry
                           Re:Train times and padding (geeky)16/09/13 18:53:00 Tom Pike
                              Re:Re:Train times and padding (geeky)16/09/13 20:28:00 Paul Green
                                 Re:Re:Re:Train times and padding (geeky)16/09/13 21:08:00 Thomas Barry
                                 Re:Re:Re:Train times and padding (geeky)16/09/13 22:51:00 Tom Pike
                              Re:Re:Train times and padding (geeky)16/09/13 20:38:00 John Hickman
                                 Re:Re:Re:Train times and padding (geeky)16/09/13 21:40:00 Thomas Barry
                                 Re:Re:Re:Train times and padding (geeky)16/09/13 22:24:00 Tom Pike
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Train times and padding (geeky)17/09/13 00:56:00 Richard Jennings
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Train times and padding (geeky)17/09/13 08:32:00 Tom Pike
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Train times and padding (geeky)17/09/13 08:46:00 Paul Green
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Train times and padding (geeky)17/09/13 12:18:00 Tom Pike
                                                Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Train times and padding (geeky)19/09/13 20:40:00 Gilbert Short
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition17/09/13 22:49:00 Robin Cox
   Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition15/09/13 08:25:00 Curzon Tussaud
   Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition15/09/13 12:49:00 Mike Rivers
      Re:Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition15/09/13 12:58:00 Richard Jennings
   Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition16/09/13 10:13:00 Charlotte Kasner
      Re:Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition16/09/13 12:18:00 Michael Dempsey
         Re:Re:Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition17/09/13 09:40:00 Curzon Tussaud
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition17/09/13 09:45:00 Tessa Russell
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition17/09/13 13:24:00 Michael Dempsey
               Bump n/m17/09/13 19:03:00 Michael Dempsey
   Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition19/09/13 12:35:00 Michael Dempsey
      Survey first, petition second19/09/13 14:41:00 Paul Pryce
         Re:Survey first, petition second19/09/13 14:56:00 Paul Green
            Re:Re:Survey first, petition second19/09/13 18:55:00 Tom Pike
               Re:Re:Re:Survey first, petition second19/09/13 21:35:00 Richard Jennings
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Survey first, petition second19/09/13 22:12:00 Tom Pike
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Survey first, petition second20/09/13 00:29:00 Richard Jennings
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Survey first, petition second20/09/13 07:56:00 Tom Pike
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Survey first, petition second20/09/13 09:24:00 Richard Jennings
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Survey first, petition second20/09/13 10:08:00 Tom Pike
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Survey first, petition second20/09/13 14:23:00 Jonathan Bingham
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Survey first, petition second20/09/13 15:05:00 Tom Pike
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Survey first, petition second20/09/13 14:29:00 Adam Bradley
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Survey first, petition second20/09/13 15:18:00 Tom Pike
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Survey first, petition second20/09/13 15:46:00 Jonathan Bingham
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Survey first, petition second20/09/13 15:54:00 Tom Pike
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Survey first, petition second20/09/13 14:01:00 Michael Dempsey
   Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition19/09/13 16:38:00 Sam Alexander
      Re:Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition21/09/13 21:54:00 Michael Dempsey
   Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition22/09/13 14:41:00 Peter Eversden
      Re:Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition22/09/13 15:05:00 Michael Dempsey
         Re:Re:Re:Piccadilly Line stop at Turnham Green petition23/09/13 13:35:00 Michael Dempsey
            Bump n/m24/09/13 19:10:00 Michael Dempsey
               Chiswick Area Forum tonight (24/9)24/09/13 19:18:00 Chris Calvi-Freeman
                  Re:Chiswick Area Forum tonight (24/9)24/09/13 19:53:00 Michael Dempsey
                     Re:Re:Chiswick Area Forum tonight (24/9)26/09/13 06:49:00 Alison Howard
                        Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum26/09/13 11:56:00 Chris Calvi-Freeman
                           Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum26/09/13 14:41:00 Chris Calvi-Freeman
                              Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum26/09/13 15:23:00 Paul Green
                                 Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum26/09/13 16:58:00 Tom Pike
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum26/09/13 17:33:00 Adam Bradley
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum26/09/13 19:04:00 Tom Pike
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum26/09/13 22:22:00 Adam Bradley
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum26/09/13 23:03:00 Richard Jennings
                                                Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum27/09/13 00:08:00 Adam Bradley
                                                   Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum27/09/13 00:42:00 Richard Jennings
                                                Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum27/09/13 00:09:00 Chris Calvi-Freeman
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum26/09/13 18:03:00 Philippa Bond
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum26/09/13 18:56:00 Tom Pike
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum26/09/13 19:40:00 Philippa Bond
                              Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum26/09/13 16:15:00 Adam Bradley
                           Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum26/09/13 16:48:00 Tom Pike
                              Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum26/09/13 17:10:00 Jonathan Bingham
                                 Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum26/09/13 17:23:00 Tom Pike
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum27/09/13 15:14:00 Paul Pryce
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum27/09/13 19:25:00 Tom Pike
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum01/10/13 10:56:00 Paul Pryce
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum01/10/13 15:37:00 Philippa Bond
                                             Reliability and London Underground targets01/10/13 16:07:00 Thomas Barry
                                                Re:Reliability and London Underground targets01/10/13 17:59:00 Adam Bradley
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum01/10/13 22:45:00 Tom Pike
                                                Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum02/10/13 00:31:00 Richard Jennings
                                                   Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum02/10/13 07:53:00 Francis Rowe
                                                      Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum02/10/13 12:12:00 Tom Pike
                                                         Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum02/10/13 16:07:00 Francis Rowe
                                                            Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum02/10/13 17:28:00 Tom Pike
                                                               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum03/10/13 08:08:00 Francis Rowe
                                                                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum03/10/13 10:19:00 Tom Pike
                                                                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum03/10/13 15:52:00 Patrick ONeill
                                                                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum03/10/13 16:47:00 Tom Pike
                                                                           Crowded Piccadilly line trains at Hammermith04/10/13 09:04:00 Paul Pryce
                                                                              Re:Crowded Piccadilly line trains at Hammermith04/10/13 12:23:00 Tom Pike
                                                                                 Re:Re:Crowded Piccadilly line trains at Hammermith04/10/13 13:57:00 Alison Howard
                                                                                    Re:Re:Re:Crowded Piccadilly line trains at Hammermith04/10/13 14:28:00 Tom Pike
                                                                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Crowded Piccadilly line trains at Hammermith04/10/13 14:58:00 Alison Howard
                                                                              Anecdote v. data04/10/13 14:24:00 Thomas Barry
                                                                                 Re:Anecdote v. data04/10/13 14:37:00 Tom Pike
                                                                                    Re:Re:Anecdote v. data04/10/13 19:20:00 Thomas Barry
                                                                                       Re:Re:Re:Anecdote v. data07/10/13 15:01:00 Francis Rowe
                                                                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Anecdote v. data07/10/13 18:06:00 Tom Pike
                           Richmond - Heathrow via TG?27/09/13 12:35:00 Thomas Barry
                              Re:Richmond - Heathrow via TG?27/09/13 13:16:00 Chris Calvi-Freeman
                                 Re:Re:Richmond - Heathrow via TG?27/09/13 13:40:00 Thomas Barry
                                    Re:Re:Re:Richmond - Heathrow via TG?27/09/13 14:07:00 Jonathan Bingham
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Richmond - Heathrow via TG?27/09/13 14:42:00 Chris Calvi-Freeman
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Richmond - Heathrow via TG?27/09/13 15:46:00 Jonathan Bingham
                           Re:Notes from the LU discussion at Chiswick Area Forum29/09/13 18:27:00 Michael Dempsey
                              Re:Additional Piccadilly Line stock29/09/13 20:50:00 Ian Wylie
                                 Re:Re:Additional Piccadilly Line stock30/09/13 10:46:00 Michael Dempsey
   TG wait times for the last few days01/10/13 12:43:00 Adam Bradley
      Re:TG wait times for the last few days01/10/13 17:09:00 Richard Jennings
         Re:Re:TG wait times for the last few days01/10/13 17:34:00 Andrew OSullivan
            Re: A curious ocurrence last Thursday (26th Oct)01/10/13 17:45:00 Richard Cathcart
               Re:Re: A curious ocurrence last Thursday (26th Oct)01/10/13 18:02:00 Philippa Bond
                  Re:Re:Re: A curious ocurrence last Thursday (26th Oct)02/10/13 18:17:00 Michael Dempsey
                     Re:Re:Re:Re: A curious ocurrence last Thursday (26th Oct)03/10/13 09:31:00 Philippa Bond
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: A curious ocurrence last Thursday (26th Oct)03/10/13 11:00:00 Thomas Barry
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: A curious ocurrence last Thursday (26th Oct)03/10/13 12:38:00 Tom Pike
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: A curious ocurrence last Thursday (26th Oct)03/10/13 14:53:00 Michael Dempsey
                                 Piccadilly line GM says slow moving Piccadilly line trains should pick up at TG03/10/13 15:12:00 Chris Calvi-Freeman
                                    Re:Piccadilly line GM says slow moving Piccadilly line trains should pick up at TG03/10/13 15:42:00 Philippa Bond
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: A curious ocurrence last Thursday (26th Oct)03/10/13 16:43:00 Kevin Mitchell
            Re:Re:Re:TG wait times for the last few days01/10/13 18:13:00 Adam Bradley
         Re:Re:TG wait times for the last few days01/10/13 17:42:00 Adam Bradley

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