A couple of assertions might need to be qualified. Firstly, 'desires for independence are not about economics' and secondly 'Northern Irish Protestants would never vote to leave the UK'.
Recently I was a guest of a family in Northern Ireland for a few days. They are not Irish by birth but have made their home there for the last several decades as had many of their circle of friends. As they have not been brought up in either the nationalist or loyalist tradition they take a purely practical view of the constitutional situation largely determined by economics. The rising prosperity of Northern Ireland has brought many people there who think like this — probably about 5-10% of the population. If there was a referendum on unity they would support the side that the believed would make them wealthier.
The consensus seemed to be that unity was the better option for Northern Ireland but the trouble that would be caused by about 35,000 irreconcilables concentrated in disadvantaged parts of East Belfast outweighed any potential economic benefits. This seems to be an increasing view point both north and south of the border.
On the other hand it would be wrong to see there still being a Protestant voting block. More people including most professions now do much more cross border business since Brexit and can see advantages in further restrictions in trade being removed. Protestant farmers sell most of their produce into the Republic and would make more money if the borders are removed. While not all are totally reconciled to a United Ireland, very few would be joining an armed resistance against it.
Obviously a few days' visit doesn't make me an expert on this but I did learn from people who live there that this is a much more nuanced and complex situation than I appreciated. |