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Topic: Re:Re:Why the local seats matter
Posted by: Paul Corcoran
Date/Time: 06/05/15 11:47:00

Strange indeed particularly as the last candidate for Labour was Ann Keen supposedly widely detested because of issues over expenses. In the event the decline in her personal vote was less than the swing against Labour nationally.

That either means that for the vast majority of the electorate in Brentford and Isleworth the personality of the candidate is irrelevant or Ann Keen's work in the constituency was underestimated. Probably a combination of both.

If you accept there was no 'Keen' effect at the last election then Labour's share of the vote should rise along with the national trend and this would be enough to see them home if the Tory vote was down on the same basis.

However, UKIP is likely to be much less influential in this seat than nationally so the Conservative might do a bit better here particularly as it is recognised to be a two horse race.

Assuming the Lib Dem vote collapses along with the national trend that leaves 13% of votes to be reallocated.

The Greens will probably take about 4% of that as students switch to them from the Lib Dems. That still leaves a significant block of Lib Dem votes to be divided up. The assumption would be that the are left of centre voters who last time out were unwilling to vote Labour but given that a Lib Dem vote delivered a Conservative led coalition they may switch to Labour this time. It is hard to see why enough of them would switch to Conservative this time to give them the seat.

Entire Thread
TopicDate PostedPosted By
Boris in Chiswick Again05/05/15 15:44:00 Paul Pryce
   Re:Boris in Chiswick Again05/05/15 16:01:00 R Atterwill
      Re:Re:Boris in Chiswick Again05/05/15 16:10:00 Richard Greenhough
         Re:Re:Re:Boris in Chiswick Again05/05/15 16:28:00 Paul Pryce
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Boris in Chiswick Again05/05/15 16:41:00 Iain Muir
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Boris in Chiswick Again06/05/15 10:10:00 Richard Greenhough
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Boris in Chiswick Again05/05/15 16:42:00 R Atterwill
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Boris in Chiswick Again05/05/15 17:01:00 Kevin Howard
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Boris in Chiswick Again05/05/15 17:06:00 R Atterwill
         Re:Re:Re:Boris in Chiswick Again05/05/15 16:44:00 R Atterwill
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Boris in Chiswick Again05/05/15 17:05:00 Claire Moran
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Boris in Chiswick Again05/05/15 17:09:00 R Atterwill
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Boris in Chiswick Again06/05/15 10:13:00 Richard Greenhough
      Re:Re:Boris in Chiswick Again05/05/15 22:33:00 Steve Taylor
   Re:Boris in Chiswick Again05/05/15 17:42:00 Thomas Barry
      Re:Re:Boris in Chiswick Again05/05/15 17:55:00 Adam Beamish
         Re:Re:Re:Boris in Chiswick Again05/05/15 19:53:00 Thomas Barry
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Boris in Chiswick Again05/05/15 21:32:00 Tim Henderson
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Boris in Chiswick Again05/05/15 21:34:00 Lorne Gifford
               Why the local seats matter06/05/15 06:44:00 Paul Pryce
                  Re:Why the local seats matter06/05/15 07:30:00 Steve Taylor
                     Re:Re:Why the local seats matter06/05/15 11:47:00 Paul Corcoran
                        Re:Re:Re:Why the local seats matter06/05/15 13:57:00 Steve Taylor
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Why the local seats matter06/05/15 14:01:00 Vanessa Smith
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Why the local seats matter06/05/15 14:13:00 Claire Moran
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Why the local seats matter06/05/15 14:19:00 Steve Taylor
                                 Positive Campaigning06/05/15 14:29:00 Shelagh Lafferty
                                    Re:Positive Campaigning06/05/15 14:39:00 Vanessa Smith
                                       Re:Re:Positive Campaigning06/05/15 14:55:00 Shelagh Lafferty
                                          Re:Re:Re:Positive Campaigning06/05/15 15:17:00 Huw Burford-Taylor
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Positive Campaigning06/05/15 15:21:00 Shelagh Lafferty
                                                Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Positive Campaigning06/05/15 15:33:00 Shelagh Lafferty
                                                   Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Positive Campaigning06/05/15 15:35:00 Pete Mayes
                                                Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Positive Campaigning06/05/15 15:35:00 Huw Burford-Taylor
                                                   Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Positive Campaigning06/05/15 15:57:00 Shelagh Lafferty
                                                      Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Positive Campaigning06/05/15 15:58:00 Pete Mayes
                                                         Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Positive Campaigning06/05/15 16:08:00 Shelagh Lafferty
                                                            Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Positive Campaigning06/05/15 16:35:00 Pete Mayes
                                                               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Positive Campaigning06/05/15 16:43:00 Huw Burford-Taylor
                                                                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Positive Campaigning06/05/15 16:49:00 Pete Mayes
                                                                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Positive Campaigning06/05/15 16:54:00 Huw Burford-Taylor
                                                                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Positive Campaigning06/05/15 16:51:00 Shelagh Lafferty
                                                               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Positive Campaigning06/05/15 16:44:00 Shelagh Lafferty
                                                      Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Positive Campaigning06/05/15 16:06:00 Huw Burford-Taylor
                                                         Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Positive Campaigning06/05/15 16:11:00 Shelagh Lafferty
                                                Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Positive Campaigning06/05/15 16:56:00 Richard Greenhough
                                                   Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Positive Campaigning06/05/15 17:11:00 Shelagh Lafferty
                                       Re:Re:Positive Campaigning06/05/15 15:52:00 Richard Greenhough
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Why the local seats matter06/05/15 15:49:00 R Atterwill

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