| Topic: | Re:Re:Why the local seats matter | |
| Posted by: | Paul Corcoran | |
| Date/Time: | 06/05/15 11:47:00 |
| Strange indeed particularly as the last candidate for Labour was Ann Keen supposedly widely detested because of issues over expenses. In the event the decline in her personal vote was less than the swing against Labour nationally. That either means that for the vast majority of the electorate in Brentford and Isleworth the personality of the candidate is irrelevant or Ann Keen's work in the constituency was underestimated. Probably a combination of both. If you accept there was no 'Keen' effect at the last election then Labour's share of the vote should rise along with the national trend and this would be enough to see them home if the Tory vote was down on the same basis. However, UKIP is likely to be much less influential in this seat than nationally so the Conservative might do a bit better here particularly as it is recognised to be a two horse race. Assuming the Lib Dem vote collapses along with the national trend that leaves 13% of votes to be reallocated. The Greens will probably take about 4% of that as students switch to them from the Lib Dems. That still leaves a significant block of Lib Dem votes to be divided up. The assumption would be that the are left of centre voters who last time out were unwilling to vote Labour but given that a Lib Dem vote delivered a Conservative led coalition they may switch to Labour this time. It is hard to see why enough of them would switch to Conservative this time to give them the seat. |