| Topic: | Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Property Market Stable But Confidence Is Shaky??! | |
| Posted by: | Stewart Dean | |
| Date/Time: | 14/06/08 08:43:00 |
| "Yep, you can’t buck market fundamentals, but the factors influencing the fundamentals themselves are subject to change - easy access to cheap hydrocarbons, for starters (i.e. the basis of our exponential economic growth over the past couple of centuries)…" This kind of makes fundamentals a formalised guessing game at the end of the day. The problem with most economic prediction is that it's based upon things having patterns that are determined from essential economic information. The reality is that this information is tied into so many other factors that accurate prediction becomes somewhat of a fantasy. In short economics is not a science despite the knowledge some may claim it adds to the story and there is certainly no way anyone can predict for 25 years simply because house prices are affected by so many elements, nearly all reside outside the rather insulated world of financial predictions. When scientists cannot predict the outcome of global warming there's no chance that economists will be able to see things they can't - they're just a vauge bunch of folks with a few tired rules of thumb that work some of the time but have the faith of those who need something to believe in. To this day I have a friend who claims that economics is a science, but then he also claims that global warming isnt man made. Me? I go by overall information from all different sources and look at general short term trends. My guess is that house prices will continue to fall at a steady rate unless people start loosing their faith and try and do what they do and find something else trendy to jump upon causing the whole boat to tip. Having recently worked for a financial institution I was amazed what a negative effect people jumping on trends can have. |