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Topic: Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear have
Posted by: Francis Rowe
Date/Time: 17/07/24 09:16:00

Felicity, I don't think you are going to persuade Steve Taylor to change his mind by asking him to consider actual evidence. In his view, his opinions are immutable facts.

Biden isn't senile or incapable and anyone could be made to look like a gibbering idiot by a careful selection of clips. In fact it is Biden's continuing capacity to do the job that is part of the problem. If there was any evidence of serious cognitive decline that could never be kept a secret but what can't be hidden is that he is old and getting older.

The Democrats have been panicking since the beginning of the year due to the polls and calls to replace Biden are not new. This election really boils down to three states - Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan - the Blue Wall. It was these that Hilary lost and it was these that Biden won back. It was supposed to be his superpower that he appealed to the working class voters of the rust belt.

However, since the beginning of the year he has been trailing Trump in these three states and it is this that is causing the Democrats to lose their nerve.

The polls since the disastrous poll don't seem to have moved much which is an indication that most Americans have made up their minds - why would they have not given the starkness of the choice?

Changing candidates at this stage is tricky. The easiest option would be to switch to the Vice President as that would mean that campaign donations could still be used. Anyone else would start with an empty war chest because the money can't be just transferred to a different campaign.

We do have recent polling for key swing States which suggest a Kamala Harris could give a boost of about 1% in the Blue Wall. However, whether that sticks when she is in the spotlight is debatable. She is from California and therefore lacks the local contacts and appeal in the Blue Wall that Biden provides and she performed poorly in her bid for the Democratic nomination.

The most widely touted other option Gavin Newsom is also from California and therefore may also struggle to win back votes in the Blue Wall. The one candidate that could tick this particular box is Gretchen Whitmer, the Governor of Michigan. However, like any new candidate she would have to go through a selection process which would mean she would barely in place before the voting started.

You therefore have to go back to Biden as the most likely candidate. An important factor to consider is that although he is behind Trump in the three key states, Trump doesn't have 50% support. It is very probably that a lot of people who say they would vote for Robert Kennedy and Jill Stein would switch to Biden if they were in one of the swing states and it was clear that they had the power to determine who was to be president.

It may well be to the Democrats advantage to be behind in the polls at this point. Now that a Republican victory is widely assumed, people will need to consider what they will do with power and the fact that Trump is surrounded by extremist headbangers will become apparent.

Also, it has to be acknowledged that the economy has been well managed under Biden and he has delivered on jobs and growth. One thing that is stopping the average American appreciating the benefits of that interest rates have not been cut. The latest inflation number dipped under 3% and was better than expectations. One rate cut if not two could happen before the election and that will transform perceptions of Biden's economic management.

At this point, senior Democrats seem unwilling to go all in with Biden. He has had support from Obama and Pelosi but it came with qualifications. If Biden was genuinely incapable it would a straightforward matter to remove him. The problem with him is that his path to victory is narrow but that isn't necessarily solved by a new candidate. The Democrats may need to hold their nerve and go all in with a candidate who maybe flawed but remains their best bet.

Entire Thread
TopicDate PostedPosted By
Oh dear, oh dear 28/06/24 07:37:00 Steve Taylor
   Re:Oh dear, oh dear 28/06/24 08:10:00 Nicholas Beard
      Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 28/06/24 09:24:00 Colin Jordan
         Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 28/06/24 09:36:00 Steve Taylor
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 28/06/24 09:40:00 Alastair Banton
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 28/06/24 10:50:00 Colin Jordan
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 28/06/24 11:11:00 Russell Pearson
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 28/06/24 12:49:00 Vanessa Smith
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 28/06/24 13:29:00 Helen Bamberger
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 28/06/24 13:30:00 Richard Greenhough
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 28/06/24 14:22:00 Keith Iddon
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 28/06/24 16:32:00 Colin Jordan
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 28/06/24 16:39:00 Steve Taylor
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 28/06/24 16:42:00 Steve Taylor
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 28/06/24 17:17:00 Nicholas Beard
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 28/06/24 18:57:00 Steve Taylor
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 03/07/24 09:09:00 Steve Taylor
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 03/07/24 16:09:00 Janice Evans
                                       The arrogance of a senile old man12/07/24 07:34:00 Steve Taylor
                                          Re:The arrogance of a senile old man12/07/24 11:03:00 Mark Evans
                                             Re:Re:The arrogance of a senile old man12/07/24 11:20:00 Adrian Irving
                                             Re:Re:The arrogance of a senile old man12/07/24 11:20:00 Janice Evans
                                             Re:Re:The arrogance of a senile old man12/07/24 11:21:00 Keith Iddon
                                                Re:Re:Re:The arrogance of a senile old man12/07/24 11:24:00 Janice Evans
                                                   Re:Re:Re:Re:The arrogance of a senile old man12/07/24 11:40:00 Janice Evans
                                                      Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:The arrogance of a senile old man12/07/24 12:14:00 Mark Evans
                                                         Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:The arrogance of a senile old man12/07/24 12:38:00 Keith Iddon
                                                            Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:The arrogance of a senile old man12/07/24 14:41:00 Felicity Caborn
                                                               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:The arrogance of a senile old man12/07/24 14:53:00 Keith Iddon
                                                                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:The arrogance of a senile old man12/07/24 16:06:00 Felicity Caborn
                                                                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:The arrogance of a senile old man12/07/24 16:37:00 Keith Iddon
                                                                        The arrogance of someone with too much time on his hands12/07/24 16:59:00 Roger Talbot
                                                                           Re:The arrogance of someone with too much time on his hands12/07/24 17:14:00 Keith Iddon
                                                                           Re:The arrogance of someone with too much time on his hands13/07/24 09:19:00 Steve Taylor
                                                                              Re:Re:The arrogance of someone with too much time on his hands13/07/24 10:42:00 Mark Evans
                                                                                 Re:Re:Re:The arrogance of someone with too much time on his hands13/07/24 21:46:00 Steve Taylor
                                                                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:The arrogance of someone with too much time on his hands14/07/24 09:47:00 Mark Evans
                                                                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:The arrogance of someone with too much time on his hands14/07/24 10:24:00 Janice Evans
                                                                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:The arrogance of someone with too much time on his hands14/07/24 13:15:00 Steve Taylor
                                                                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:The arrogance of someone with too much time on his hands15/07/24 07:47:00 Mark Evans
                                                            Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:The arrogance of a senile old man15/07/24 14:17:00 Vanessa Smith
   Re:The Trump Shooting14/07/24 12:26:00 Richard Greenhough
      Re:Re:The Trump Shooting14/07/24 13:21:00 Steve Taylor
         Re:Re:Re:The Trump Shooting14/07/24 13:23:00 Vanessa Smith
            Re:Re:Re:Re:The Trump Shooting14/07/24 13:33:00 Steve Taylor
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:The Trump Shooting14/07/24 13:40:00 Janice Evans
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:The Trump Shooting15/07/24 19:33:00 Keith Iddon
         Re:Re:Re:The Trump Shooting14/07/24 13:28:00 Richard Greenhough
      Re:Re:The Trump Shooting22/07/24 16:20:00 Richard Greenhough
   Re:Oh dear, oh dear 14/07/24 13:28:00 Caroline Carney
      Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 14/07/24 14:56:00 Vanessa Smith
         Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 14/07/24 18:17:00 Steve Taylor
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 15/07/24 08:20:00 Steve Taylor
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 15/07/24 11:04:00 Vanessa Smith
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 15/07/24 11:48:00 Steve Taylor
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 15/07/24 12:02:00 Vanessa Smith
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 15/07/24 12:11:00 Robert Fish
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear have 15/07/24 16:50:00 Steve Taylor
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear have 15/07/24 18:19:00 Robert Fish
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear have 16/07/24 08:41:00 Steve Taylor
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear have 16/07/24 09:47:00 Steve Taylor
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear have 16/07/24 10:15:00 Felicity Caborn
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear have 16/07/24 10:57:00 Steve Taylor
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear have 17/07/24 09:16:00 Francis Rowe
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear have 18/07/24 08:13:00 Felicity Caborn
                                                Reply18/07/24 14:24:00 Francis Rowe
                           Reply16/07/24 11:23:00 Andrew OSullivan
                              Re:Reply16/07/24 11:52:00 Robert Fish
                                 Re:Re:Reply17/07/24 08:57:00 Steve Taylor
                                    Re:Re:Re:Reply17/07/24 15:10:00 Steve Taylor
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:  Biden is finished ✅ 17/07/24 22:33:00 Steve Taylor
   Re:Oh dear, oh dear 17/07/24 23:04:00 Janice Evans
      Re:Re:  and another senior Democrat calls for Biden to quit18/07/24 08:04:00 Steve Taylor
         Re:Re:Re:  and another senior Democrat calls for Biden to quit18/07/24 22:44:00 Steve Taylor
            Re:Re:Re:Re:  and another senior Democrat calls for Biden to quit19/07/24 02:17:00 Keith Iddon
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:  and another senior Democrat calls for Biden to quit19/07/24 08:37:00 Colin Jordan
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:  and another senior Democrat calls for Biden to quit19/07/24 09:32:00 Nicholas Beard
               Reply19/07/24 08:55:00 Francis Rowe
                  Reply19/07/24 09:24:00 Francis Rowe
                     Re:Reply19/07/24 10:29:00 Steve Taylor
                  Re:Reply19/07/24 10:26:00 Steve Taylor
                     Reply19/07/24 11:05:00 Francis Rowe
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:  and another senior Democrat calls for Biden to quit20/07/24 11:41:00 Vanessa Smith
   Re:Oh dear, oh dear 19/07/24 11:45:00 Keith Iddon
      Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 20/07/24 09:33:00 Janice Evans
         Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 20/07/24 16:09:00 Steve Taylor
      Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 21/07/24 13:51:00 Brian Coyle
         Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 21/07/24 16:43:00 Colin Jordan
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 21/07/24 19:45:00 Steve Taylor
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 21/07/24 20:02:00 Steve Taylor
                  Reply22/07/24 08:25:00 Francis Rowe
                     Re:Reply22/07/24 09:02:00 Steve Taylor
                        Re:Re:Reply22/07/24 09:27:00 Felicity Caborn
                           Re:Re:Re:Reply22/07/24 09:55:00 Janice Evans
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply22/07/24 11:48:00 Felicity Caborn
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply22/07/24 12:28:00 Janice Evans
                           Re:Re:Re:Reply22/07/24 11:06:00 Robert Fish
                           Re:Re:Re:Reply22/07/24 16:53:00 Steve Taylor
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply22/07/24 17:14:00 David Burke
                           Re:Re:Re:Reply22/07/24 17:00:00 Steve Taylor
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply22/07/24 20:29:00 Mark Evans
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply22/07/24 21:03:00 Steve Taylor
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply23/07/24 08:49:00 Mark Evans
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply23/07/24 09:00:00 Steve Taylor
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 22/07/24 10:20:00 Brian Coyle
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 23/07/24 08:54:00 Colin Jordan
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Oh dear, oh dear 23/07/24 09:30:00 Alastair Banton
                     Show some decency, please23/07/24 12:19:00 Roger Talbot
                        Re:  Reply23/07/24 12:35:00 Steve Taylor
                           Re:White House23/07/24 12:40:00 Richard Greenhough
                              Re:Re:White House23/07/24 12:50:00 Richard Greenhough
                              Re:Re:White House23/07/24 13:47:00 Steve Taylor
                           Re:Re:  Reply23/07/24 12:41:00 Jeremy Parkinson
                              Re:Re:Re:  Reply23/07/24 12:51:00 Keith Iddon
                           Re:Re:  Reply23/07/24 12:50:00 Robert Fish
                              Re:Re:Re:  Reply23/07/24 12:57:00 Keith Iddon
                              Re:Re:Re:  Reply23/07/24 13:59:00 Steve Taylor
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:  Reply23/07/24 15:41:00 Jeremy Parkinson
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:  Reply23/07/24 15:50:00 Keith Iddon
                                       Re:Decline23/07/24 15:56:00 Richard Greenhough
                                          Re:Re:Decline23/07/24 17:14:00 Keith Iddon
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:  Reply23/07/24 15:57:00 Robert Fish
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:  Reply23/07/24 22:31:00 Steve Taylor
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:  Reply23/07/24 22:53:00 Robert Fish
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:  Repl24/07/24 08:52:00 Steve Taylor
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:  Repl24/07/24 09:12:00 Robert Fish
                                                Re:Trump-enabler24/07/24 09:17:00 Richard Greenhough
                                                Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:  Repl24/07/24 15:56:00 Steve Taylor
                                                   Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:  Repl24/07/24 17:10:00 Robert Fish
                                                   Re:Trump24/07/24 17:14:00 Richard Greenhough
                                                   Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:  Repl24/07/24 17:23:00 Mark Evans
                                       Kamala Harris leads by 2% in new poll published at 21:2623/07/24 23:00:00 Robert Fish
                                          Reply24/07/24 08:26:00 Francis Rowe
                                             Re:The Popular Vote24/07/24 09:05:00 Richard Greenhough
                                                Re:Re:The Popular Vote24/07/24 09:20:00 Robert Fish
                                          Re:Kamala Harris leads by 2% in new poll published at 21:2624/07/24 15:59:00 Steve Taylor
                                             Re:Re:Kamala Harris leads by 2% in new poll published at 21:2627/07/24 18:10:00 Steve Taylor
                                                Re:Re:Re:Kamala Harris leads by 2% in new poll published at 21:2627/07/24 20:16:00 David Burke
                                                   Re:Re:Re:Re:Kamala Harris leads by 2% in new poll published at 21:2627/07/24 21:20:00 Steve Taylor
                                                      Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Kamala Harris leads by 2% in new poll published at 21:2627/07/24 22:07:00 Stewart Jones
                                                         Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Kamala Harris leads by 2% in new poll published at 21:2628/07/24 00:07:00 Steve Taylor
                                                            Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Kamala Harris leads by 2% in new poll published at 21:2628/07/24 07:29:00 Stewart Jones
                                                               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Kamala Harris leads by 2% in new poll published at 21:2628/07/24 10:40:00 Steve Taylor
                                                                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Kamala Harris leads by 2% in new poll published at 21:2628/07/24 22:34:00 Stewart Jones
                                                                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Kamala Harris leads by 2% in new poll published at 21:2628/07/24 22:50:00 Steve Taylor
                                                                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Kamala Harris leads by 2% in new poll published at 21:2629/07/24 08:52:00 Stewart Jones
                                                                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Kamala Harris leads by 2% in new poll published at 21:2629/07/24 09:01:00 Steve Taylor
                                                                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Kamala Harris leads by 2% in new poll published at 21:2629/07/24 09:47:00 Stewart Jones

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