Forum Message

Topic: Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity.
Posted by: Andy Riley
Date/Time: 28/10/20 09:00:00

Richard,
Thank you for selecting the references supplied out of the vast number that can be used to support either side of this discussion.

I take the view that country comparisons are inherently difficult for various reasons:
differences in counting methods and statistical analysis
demographic differences (age structure, ethnicity etc)
policy differences (e.g. lockdown levels and timing)

There are statistical techniques to make these comparisons, but as we are still in the pandemic it is surely too soon to draw any firm conclusions.  For example we have estimates of future QALYs lost due to health service restrictions but not actual data.  Ditto for medium to long term economic effects.

But there are some factors which stand out.  For example the policy of discharging vulnerable people back to care homes to free up beds in hospitals for the "surge" which never came.  In the UK this may have resulted in around 20k excess deaths added to the Covid count (investigation in this week's Sunday Times).  The same policy was enacted in Sweden similarly inflating their figures.

You make comparisons with Sweden's Nordic neighbours followed by a list of countries including UK and France - are we now Nordic? And you left out Belgium whose performance is not too good.  But this is cherry picking. There are countries such as Peru and Argentina that have done badly with severe lockdowns and others with a lighter touch that have done better.

I've had a look at some of the articles you reference.
The Irish Time piece on Finland is interesting:
"Experts said Finland’s approach – and the similar one of Denmark and Norway – of shutting down rapidly but not totally to get the pandemic under control, and then reopening after a couple of months has been one of the most successful in Europe in this early stage of coronavirus."...
"One big distinction between Finland and all other European countries is its focus on preparedness and how to act in national emergencies, born out of its collective experience during the Winter War in 1939-40 against the Soviet Union. Its law on preparedness explicitly mentions pandemics and was triggered for the first time since the second World War while its emergency stockpiles of medical and protective equipment were the envy of the continent amid shortages elsewhere.

Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist who reviewed the preparedness in Finland several years ago, said: “Their level of preparedness is just way beyond anything we would even dream about in Sweden. But, of course, if you have a neighbour like Russia and you’ve fought wars with them forever ...”
"

So Finland was well prepared and was able to react quickly and reopen quickly.  I recall noting in March that there seemed to be inadequate local organisation for emergencies (in the Cold War we used to have Civil Defence capability).  It seemed to take about 2 weeks to get going in which time spontaneous local voluntary initiatives had sprung up around the country.  That is perhaps something we could learn from Finland without waiting for detailed analysis.

On the subject of herd immunity, the author of this Encyclopedia Britannica article seems to think it is a thing:
"Herd immunity, also called community immunity, state in which a large proportion of a population is able to repel an infectious disease, thereby limiting the extent to which the disease can spread from person to person. Herd immunity can be conferred through natural immunity, previous exposure to the disease, or vaccination. An entire population does not need to be immune to attain herd immunity. Rather, herd immunity can occur when the population density of persons who are susceptible to infection is sufficiently low so as to minimize the likelihood of an infected individual coming in contact with a susceptible individual. Herd immunity can prevent sustained disease spread in populations, thereby protecting susceptible individuals from infection. It is applicable, however, only to infectious diseases that can be spread by human contact."

I thought Sarah Pitt in the interview was nuanced with her observations and speculations (although her view on herd immunity seems to contradict the quote above - but then science is about disagreement and debate).  She opines that withe better focused testing and control Covid may settle down to a dynamic equilibrium state that can be managed (cf meningitis, norovirus).


Entire Thread
TopicDate PostedPosted By
Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity.27/10/20 16:30:00 Richard Cathcart
   Reply27/10/20 16:34:00 Michael Brown
   Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity.27/10/20 16:41:00 Keith Iddon
      Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity.27/10/20 17:34:00 Andrzej Kowalski
         Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity.27/10/20 17:41:00 Basil Finnis
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity.27/10/20 17:52:00 Michael Brown
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity.27/10/20 18:04:00 Michael Brown
               Re: Michael Brown27/10/20 18:15:00 Richard Cathcart
                  Re:Re: Richard Cathcart27/10/20 18:21:00 Michael Brown
                     Re:Re:Re: Richard Cathcart27/10/20 19:24:00 Alan Clark
                        Re:Re:Re:Re: Richard Cathcart27/10/20 20:32:00 Steve Taylor
                           Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myths of Richard Cathcart.27/10/20 20:41:00 Michael Brown
                              Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myths of Richard Cathcart.27/10/20 21:41:00 Keith Iddon
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myths of Richard Cathcart.27/10/20 21:51:00 Michael Brown
                                    Reply27/10/20 22:01:00 Michael Brown
                                       Re: brown3rd 27/10/20 22:17:00 James Smith-Jones
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myths of Richard Cathcart.27/10/20 23:03:00 Michael Brown
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myths of Richard Cathcart.28/10/20 07:38:00 Alan Clark
   Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity.28/10/20 09:00:00 Andy Riley
      Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myths of Richard Cathcart.28/10/20 09:45:00 Michael Brown
         Re:Re:interesting video28/10/20 12:27:00 James Smith-Jones
            .. new J20 virus alert..28/10/20 12:48:00 Richard Greenhough
               Re:.. Interesting Sky News article 28/10/20 12:58:00 Steve Taylor
               Re:. vidoe for Dick!28/10/20 12:59:00 James Smith-Jones
                  .. new J20 virus alert..28/10/20 13:31:00 Richard Greenhough
      Re: Andy Riley28/10/20 16:12:00 Richard Cathcart
   Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity.28/10/20 13:44:00 Justin Stephenson
      Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity.28/10/20 15:16:00 Steve Taylor
         Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity.28/10/20 15:47:00 Cllr Sam Hearn
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity.28/10/20 15:59:00 Keith Iddon
               Re: The Black Death (1347-51)28/10/20 16:29:00 Richard Cathcart
                  Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myths of Richard Cathcart.28/10/20 16:56:00 Michael Brown
                     Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity28/10/20 18:10:00 Richard Cathcart
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myths of Richard Cathcart.28/10/20 20:52:00 Michael Brown
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden  got it totally wrong!03/11/20 22:43:00 Steve Taylor
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden  got it totally wrong!04/11/20 11:38:00 Brian Coyle
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden  got it totally wrong!04/11/20 11:51:00 Steve Taylor
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden  got it totally wrong!04/11/20 12:00:00 Brian Coyle
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden  got it totally wrong!04/11/20 13:42:00 Alan Clark
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden  got it totally wrong!04/11/20 14:10:00 James Smith-Jones
                                             .. new J20 virus alert..04/11/20 14:58:00 Richard Greenhough
                                                Re:.. new J20 virus alert..04/11/20 15:26:00 James Smith-Jones
                                                   Re:Re:.. new J20 virus alert..04/11/20 15:28:00 James Smith-Jones
                                                      13/11/20 - Update from Sweden13/11/20 14:11:00 Richard Cathcart
                                                         Re:13/11/20 - Update from Sweden13/11/20 17:09:00 Michael Brown
                                                            Re: 16/11/20 - Further update from Sweden25/11/20 00:41:00 Richard Cathcart
                                                               Re:Re: 16/11/20 - Further update from Sweden25/11/20 06:55:00 Michael Brown
                                                                  Re:Re:Re: 16/11/20 - Further update from Sweden25/11/20 07:10:00 James Smith-Jones
                                                                     Re:Re:Re:Re: 16/11/20 - Further update from Sweden25/11/20 08:05:00 Alan Clark
   Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity.25/11/20 09:38:00 Basil Finnis
      Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity.25/11/20 13:52:00 bobby osborne
         Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity.25/11/20 14:25:00 James Smith-Jones
            Re:Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity.25/11/20 15:20:00 Michael Brown
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity.25/11/20 15:30:00 James Smith-Jones
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity.25/11/20 15:33:00 Michael Brown
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity.25/11/20 15:38:00 Michael Brown
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity.25/11/20 16:06:00 James Smith-Jones
         Re: Brown & Osborne - Double Act25/11/20 17:39:00 Richard Cathcart
            Re:Re: Brown & Osborne - Double Act25/11/20 18:20:00 bobby osborne
               Re:Re:Re: Brown & Osborne - Double Act25/11/20 18:40:00 Michael Brown
                  Reply25/11/20 18:59:00 Michael Brown
                  Re:Re:Re:Re: Brown & Osborne - Double Act25/11/20 19:37:00 bobby osborne
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Brown & Osborne - Double Act25/11/20 21:02:00 bobby osborne
               Re:Re:Re: Brown & Osborne - Double Act25/11/20 21:27:00 Andrew Jones
                  Re:Re:Re:Re: Brown & Osborne - Double Act25/11/20 21:40:00 Jeffrey Cope
                  Re:Re:Re:Re: Brown & Osborne - Double Act25/11/20 22:44:00 bobby osborne
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Brown & Osborne - Double Act26/11/20 07:06:00 James Smith-Jones
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Brown & Osborne - Double Act26/11/20 10:43:00 Michael Brown
                         .. new J20 virus alert..26/11/20 11:05:00 Richard Greenhough
                           Re: .. new J20 virus alert..26/11/20 12:55:00 Andrew Jones
                              Re:Re: .. new J20 virus alert..26/11/20 13:07:00 James Smith-Jones
                                 Re:Re:Re: .. new J20 virus alert..26/11/20 22:03:00 bobby osborne
                           Re:.  Dick!26/11/20 13:11:00 James Smith-Jones
                              Re: J-20 forum virus..26/11/20 16:17:00 Stuart Kerr
                                 Re:Re: J-20 forum virus..26/11/20 19:00:00 bobby osborne
                                    Re:Re:Re: J-20 forum virus..26/11/20 21:59:00 bobby osborne
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re: J-20 forum virus..26/11/20 22:41:00 James Smith-Jones
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: J-20 forum virus..26/11/20 22:57:00 Claire Moran
                                             Re:queen victoria is dead Bobby!!!27/11/20 06:34:00 James Smith-Jones
   Re: More from Sweden on the myth of herd immunity17/12/20 15:17:00 Richard Cathcart
      Re:Re: More from Sweden on the myth of herd immunity17/12/20 16:02:00 Colin Jordan
         Reply17/12/20 19:32:00 Michael Brown
            Re:More Brown stuff17/12/20 23:40:00 Richard Cathcart
               Neighbours, everybody needs good neighbours..17/12/20 23:49:00 Michael Brown
                  Re:Neighbours, everybody needs good neighbours..18/12/20 00:10:00 Michael Brown
                  Re:Brown stuff piling up...18/12/20 13:04:00 Richard Cathcart
                     Cathcart in Denial18/12/20 14:00:00 Michael Brown
                        Re:MB in Denial18/12/20 14:09:00 John Whitworth
                           Twitworth in Denial18/12/20 14:17:00 Michael Brown
                              Data processing18/12/20 14:32:00 John Whitworth
                                 Re:More on Data processing18/12/20 14:45:00 Richard Cathcart
                                    Re:Re:More on Data processing18/12/20 14:48:00 Michael Brown
                                       Re: Ever deeper in the Brown stuff...18/12/20 19:18:00 Richard Cathcart
                                          Re:Re:Cathcart talking out of his botty...18/12/20 19:35:00 Michael Brown
                                             Re:Re:Re:Cathcart talking out of his botty...18/12/20 23:15:00 Alan Clark
                                                Re:Re:Re:Re:Cathcart talking out of his botty...18/12/20 23:29:00 Michael Brown
                                 Re:Data processing18/12/20 15:28:00 Michael Brown
                                    Re:Data processing18/12/20 15:43:00 John Whitworth
   Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity.18/12/20 19:57:00 James Roy
      Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity.18/12/20 22:50:00 Michael Brown
         Re:Re:Re:Covid, Sweden and the Myth of Herd Immunity.18/12/20 23:58:00 Vivienne Cox
         Re: Brown stuff - now smellier than ever.19/12/20 00:06:00 Richard Cathcart
      Re: James Roy18/12/20 23:58:00 Richard Cathcart
         Re: Latest news from Sweden (18/12/20)19/12/20 00:13:00 Richard Cathcart
            Re:Re: Latest news from Sweden (18/12/20)19/12/20 00:53:00 Michael Brown
               Re: Ankle deep in  Brown stuff19/12/20 01:10:00 Richard Cathcart
                  Illogical RC19/12/20 02:19:00 Michael Brown
                     Re:Illogical RC19/12/20 02:29:00 Michael Brown
                        Re:Re:Illogical RC19/12/20 11:32:00 bobby osborne
                           Re:Re:Re:Illogical RC19/12/20 12:29:00 Basil Finnis
                     Re: Drowning in brown stuff now19/12/20 18:35:00 Richard Cathcart
                        Reply19/12/20 20:40:00 Michael Brown
                           Re:Reply19/12/20 21:01:00 Robert Fish
                              Re:Re:Reply19/12/20 21:08:00 Michael Brown
                           Re: More Brown stuff19/12/20 21:42:00 Richard Cathcart
                              Cathcart running for cover..19/12/20 21:50:00 Michael Brown
                        Re:Re: Drowning in brown stuff now19/12/20 21:41:00 Stewart Jones
                           Re:Re:Re: Drowning in brown stuff now19/12/20 21:45:00 bobby osborne
                              Re:Re:Re:Re: Drowning in brown stuff now19/12/20 21:58:00 Michael Brown
                                 The deadly virus20/12/20 09:06:00 Michael Brown
                                    12/01/21 - Another update from Sweden12/01/21 16:49:00 Richard Cathcart
                                       Re:12/01/21 - Another update from Sweden12/01/21 16:52:00 Michael Brown
                                          Re: Brown exposes himself yet again...13/01/21 13:39:00 Richard Cathcart
                                             Re:Re: Brown exposes himself yet again...13/01/21 13:57:00 Robert Fish
                                                Re:Re:Re: Brown exposes himself yet again...13/01/21 14:51:00 Richard Cathcart
                                                   Re:Re:Re:Re: Brown exposes himself yet again...13/01/21 15:06:00 Robert Fish
                                                      Re: Mr Cathcart again......13/01/21 15:08:00 Stuart Kerr
                                                      Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Brown exposes himself yet again...13/01/21 15:11:00 Michael Brown
                                                         Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Brown exposes himself yet again...13/01/21 15:58:00 Brian Coyle
                                                            Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Brown exposes himself yet again...13/01/21 16:45:00 Roger Talbot
                                                               Re: Roger Talbot13/01/21 20:12:00 Richard Cathcart
                                                                  Re:Re: Roger Talbot13/01/21 20:47:00 Robert Fish
                                                      Re: Robert Fish13/01/21 19:42:00 Richard Cathcart
                                                         Re:Re: Robert Fish13/01/21 21:26:00 Roger Talbot
                                                            Re:Re:Re: Robert Fish13/01/21 21:29:00 Roger Talbot
                                                            Re: Roger Talbot (2)13/01/21 22:35:00 Richard Cathcart
                                                            Re:Re:Re: Robert Fish14/01/21 13:15:00 Andrew Jones
                                                               Re:Re:Re:Re: Robert Fish14/01/21 13:44:00 Robert Fish
                                                                  Re: Robert Fish (2)14/01/21 14:56:00 Richard Cathcart
                                                                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Robert Fish15/01/21 03:40:00 Andrew Jones
                                                                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Robert Fish15/01/21 10:14:00 Stuart Kerr
                                                                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re: Robert Fish16/01/21 20:50:00 Robert Fish
   Swedish Covid death toll passes 10,000...14/01/21 16:44:00 Ken Munn
      Re:Swedish Covid death toll passes 10,000...14/01/21 16:48:00 Richard Cathcart
         Re:Re:Swedish Covid death toll passes 10,000...14/01/21 20:25:00 Steve Taylor
            Re:Re:Re:Swedish Covid death toll passes 10,000...15/01/21 10:28:00 James Roy
               Re: Mortality Rates per 100k of population15/01/21 12:05:00 Richard Cathcart
                  Re:Re: Mortality Rates per 100k of population15/01/21 17:17:00 Steve Taylor
                     Re:Re:Re: Mortality Rates per 100k of population15/01/21 17:23:00 Russell Pearson
                        Pedantry corner15/01/21 18:25:00 John Whitworth
                           Re:Pedantry corner15/01/21 18:30:00 Russell Pearson
                  Re:Re: Mortality Rates per 100k of population15/01/21 19:37:00 Brian Coyle
                     Re:Re:Re: Mortality Rates per 100k of population16/01/21 23:25:00 Alan Clark
                        19/01/21 - Latest Update from Sweden19/01/21 17:28:00 Richard Cathcart
                           Re:24/02/21 - Latest Update from Sweden25/02/21 19:37:00 Richard Cathcart
                        Altruism appeal.25/02/21 19:55:00 Keith Iddon

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