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Topic: Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:General Election - yuppification
Posted by: Paul Pryce
Date/Time: 23/04/15 09:45:00

'Yuppification' is an eighties anachronism as very few young people can afford to buy or rent property in West London these days. Whether the gentrification of places like Brentford is going to have an impact on voting patterns is an interesting issue and I recall raising it in advance of the last Council election.

As others have pointed out there is no evidence whatsoever that the increase in the number of new build flats has changed the political makeup of the area. Given that the median rent of a flat in Brentford seems to be about 1600 pcm and the median price is about 350,000 you would need to have an income at a minimum of 50,000 to 60,000 to even consider living there. This could of course include couples paid around the national average wage but it is reasonable to assume that the majority of people moving in are in the top quartile of earners and therefore arguably more likely to vote Conservative.

There probably isn't a simple reason why this isn't happening. A high proportion of new residents are likely to be renters but the argument that they are natural Labour voters does make much sense particularly given the type of homes we are talking about. What the figures do seem to show is that they have a much lower propensity to vote for any party. This could be because they are expatriates, haven't bother to register or haven't really formed an attachment to the area yet. Whatever the reason it means they have a limited impact on elections.

Also, from what I am led to believe, a substantial proportion of the 'affordable' units in these new developments is now going to public sector workers who would have a strong tendency to vote Labour.

Also I don't think we should fall into the trap of seeing Chiswick as a solidly Conservative voting bloc. I know lifelong Labour supporters who vote Tory in local elections because of the 'cash cow Chiswick' issue and frustration over the way parking is enforced. Despite this Labour still attract above 30% of the votes cast in two out of the three local wards and if one of their candidates could attract a 'John Todd premium' i.e. a few hundred extra votes down to the work they do in the community rather than political affiliation, they could win at least one seat in a Chiswick ward.

Evidence from elsewhere doesn't confirm that lots of newly built flats and rising property values makes for an increased Conservative vote. The next door constituency in Hammersmith saw both of these factors to a significant extent prior to the last general election and surprisingly returned a Labour MP.

Entire Thread
TopicDate PostedPosted By
General Election - yuppification22/04/15 11:57:00 Ken Munn
   Re:General Election - yuppification22/04/15 12:00:00 Vanessa Smith
      Re:Re:General Election - yuppification22/04/15 12:42:00 Pete Mayes
         Re:Re:Re:General Election - yuppification22/04/15 14:10:00 Vanessa Smith
            Re:Re:Re:Re:General Election - yuppification22/04/15 17:18:00 David McLoughlin
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:General Election - yuppification22/04/15 17:19:00 Thomas Barry
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:General Election - yuppification23/04/15 09:45:00 Paul Pryce
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:General Election - yuppification23/04/15 13:08:00 Sam Hearn

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