| Topic: | Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Forum ? Penelope please don't respond if you don't agree?? | |
| Posted by: | T P Howell | |
| Date/Time: | 08/05/17 18:29:00 |
| Cllr Sam Hearn's assertion "predictions that a NO vote last June would lead to economic meltdown have also proved to be comprehensively wrong" is just plain wrong on so many levels: 1 We have not yet left the EU / single market. We still have free trade with our biggest market (by far). 2 Nobody said (so far as I recall) that the vote would lead to meltdown. It is leaving that will do so. 3 If you don't think that a fall in the value of the pound by 15% - 20% (so far) is a disaster - then you are not one of the many people in this country who spend most of their disposal income on food, clothes and energy - most of which we import. A 20% fall in the value of the pound must least lead to a 25% increase in the costs of imported goods - its simple maths. So far, the cost increases have mainly been absorbed along the supply chain (hence the Marmite spat), and many importers took out currency hedges before the Brexit vote, which are now expiring. But have you filled up your car recently? Food, clothes, energy costs, etc etc will (must) increase substantially over the coming months. 4 The lead time for the impact of most economic changes is measured in years - not months. For example, inward investment started drying up in the months before Brexit. We will see the impact of this in a reduction in growth in the months and years ahead. 5 Inflation is now on a sharp upward trend - outstripping wage growth. I.e. working people and pensioners are getting poorer. 6 House prices are now falling for the first time since 2012 - perhaps not a bad thing overall - but will hurt many people. 7 Daily we are seeing firms moving high value jobs in the financial services sector to other European cities. Just about every major financial institution is making plans, or contingency plans to do so. As financial services is one of the largest parts of our economy, this is going to hurt - a lot. 8 Productivity within the economy will decrease as skilled people (from all sectors) leave the UK. London as built up the world's leading Tech and Fintech hubs in the last few years, due to its ability to recruit the best people from all over Europe, and to export without barriers into a market of 500 people. If people can't move freely into the UK to work, or companies cannot export their products and services without barriers, our leading position will be lost. 9 UK GDP growth in the first quarter of this year (0.3%) was less than half the growth in the final quarter of last year (0.7%). This slowdown is likely to continue as the "Brexit effect" feeds through and the economy continues to decline. In fact - exactly as predicted by those who gave the issues any serious thought at all. If you don't think that this is the start of an "economic meltdown", even before we have left the EU, then you then you certainly are in a different galaxy. Of course - it has not all been bad. There have been some winners. According to the Sunday Times the 1,000 richest people in the UK collectively became 14% richer. I hate it when people say "I told you so". But... I told you so! As did very many other people who saw the bleed'n obvious of where Brexit would (and can only) lead to. Despite May's best efforts to sabotage the Brexit negotiations, or her just plain ineptitude, we still have the opportunity take back control of our economy and reverse the decision. I strongly suspect that a referendum today - now that people are waking up to smell the coffee - would give a very different outcome. |