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Topic: Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year
Posted by: Julian Pavey
Date/Time: 09/12/15 17:18:00

Just look at the world wide stats as a guide for commercial airlines.

I am cherry picking a few i admit. All not including terrorist incidents but it paints a picture when flights numbers have gone up in huge numbers but the chances are getting slimmer by the year. Reason and altitude paints a picture and then add in the technology over time.

Fatal Accidents with 20 or More Passengers

1970 38
1990 35
2000 21
2005 15
2010 12
2014 6
stats for last 50 years where reason for crash initiated
Taking off 1%
Landing 1%
Initial climb 1%
Final Approach 1%
high altitude climbing 14%
high altitude descent 11%
High altitude cruising 57%

Highest cat for reasons in order downwards
Pilot Error
Pilot Error (weather related)
Pilot Error (mechanical related)
Other Human Error
Mechanical Failure
Sabotage

Survival rate gone up
Number of flights gone up

Top 40 airlines and the chance of an accident and not fatal
1 in 19.8 million

Not saying the % for  crash would not go up on percentage terms of flights in and out. But the real stats point to that becoming less likely as plains and technology progress.

So in my view the likelihood is less moving forward with a 3rd runway than 2 runways 20 years ago.


Entire Thread
TopicDate PostedPosted By
PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runay decision until next year07/12/15 11:30:00 Claudia Jachtmann
   Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runay decision until next year07/12/15 11:31:00 Claudia Jachtmann
      Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runay decision until next year07/12/15 11:34:00 Philippa Bond
         Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runay decision until next year07/12/15 11:46:00 John Connelly
            Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year07/12/15 12:10:00 Claudia Jachtmann
            Re: 'Clear direction' on Heathrow by end of the year07/12/15 12:13:00 Ian Wylie
               Re:Re: 'Clear direction' on Heathrow by end of the year07/12/15 12:22:00 Claudia Jachtmann
                  Decision on Heathrow expansion delayed by air quality concerns07/12/15 12:42:00 Claudia Jachtmann
                  Re:Re:Re: 'Clear direction' on Heathrow by end of the year07/12/15 12:48:00 Rima Jones
   Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year07/12/15 12:49:00 Richard Greenhough
      Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year07/12/15 12:59:00 Rima Jones
      Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year07/12/15 13:01:00 Brian May
         Heathrow crash risk ‘raised by third runway’07/12/15 13:07:00 Claudia Jachtmann
            Re:Heathrow crash risk ‘raised by third runway’ - pas de merde, Sherlock07/12/15 15:37:00 Andy Rooney
      Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year07/12/15 13:08:00 Claire Moran
         Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year07/12/15 13:38:00 Rima Jones
            Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year07/12/15 20:39:00 Rima Jones
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year07/12/15 21:04:00 Claire Moran
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year08/12/15 10:15:00 David Grantley
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year08/12/15 11:34:00 Richard Greenhough
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year08/12/15 12:10:00 Cllr Sam Hearn
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year08/12/15 12:20:00 Brian May
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year08/12/15 13:00:00 Richard Greenhough
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year08/12/15 13:30:00 Jonathan Bingham
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year08/12/15 13:35:00 Carl Wynne
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year08/12/15 13:35:00 Tim Henderson
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year08/12/15 13:47:00 Brian May
                                       Well, well, well, Mr Bingham works "100 yards away from the runway at Heathrow", in '06 anyway:-08/12/15 13:57:00 Brian May
                                          Re:Well, well, well, Mr Bingham works "100 yards away from the runway at Heathrow", in '06 anyway:-08/12/15 14:28:00 Jonathan Bingham
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year08/12/15 13:55:00 Cllr Sam Hearn
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year08/12/15 14:34:00 Jonathan Bingham
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year08/12/15 14:02:00 Dave Robertson
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year08/12/15 14:36:00 Cllr Sam Hearn
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year08/12/15 14:49:00 Cllr Sam Hearn
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year08/12/15 15:13:00 Brian May
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year08/12/15 15:47:00 Brian May
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year08/12/15 15:50:00 Will Watson
                                       Heathrow expansion: Risk of plane crash "was hidden by airport panel" 08/12/15 16:17:00 Brian May
                                          Re:Heathrow expansion: Risk of plane crash "was hidden by airport panel" 08/12/15 17:42:00 Dave Robertson
                                             Re:Re:Heathrow expansion: Risk of plane crash "was hidden by airport panel" 08/12/15 18:10:00 Richard Greenhough
                                                Risk of plane crash "was hidden by airport panel" - shoots itself in the foot.09/12/15 10:53:00 Ken Munn
                                                   Re:Risk of plane crash "was hidden by airport panel" - shoots itself in the foot.09/12/15 12:08:00 Claire Moran
                                                   Re:Risk of plane crash "was hidden by airport panel" - shoots itself in the foot.09/12/15 19:51:00 Brian May
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year08/12/15 17:05:00 Richard Greenhough
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year08/12/15 16:51:00 Jonathan Bingham
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 11:54:00 Cllr Sam Hearn
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 12:23:00 David Cuss
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 13:43:00 Dave Robertson
                                          Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 12:32:00 Michael Robinson
                                             Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 12:38:00 David Cuss
                                                Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 13:11:00 Michael Robinson
                                                   Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 13:23:00 Peter Millman
                                                      Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 13:35:00 Cllr Sam Hearn
                                                      Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 13:53:00 David Cuss
                                                         Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 13:57:00 Carl Wynne
                                                   Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 13:42:00 David Cuss
                                                      Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 14:05:00 Cllr Sam Hearn
                                                         Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 14:12:00 Will Watson
                                                            Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 14:13:00 Julian Pavey
                                                               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 14:44:00 Cllr Sam Hearn
                                                                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 14:53:00 Brian May
                                                                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 15:41:00 Peter Millman
                                                                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 16:07:00 David Cuss
                                                                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 14:55:00 Jonathan Bingham
                                                                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 15:15:00 Richard Greenhough
                                                            Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 15:59:00 David Cuss
                                                               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 16:36:00 Will Watson
                                                                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 16:55:00 Cllr Sam Hearn
                                                                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 17:39:00 Jonathan Bingham
                                                                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 18:41:00 Dave Robertson
                                                                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 17:46:00 David Cuss
                                                                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 17:55:00 Richard Greenhough
                                                                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 23:21:00 Ken Munn
                                                         Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 16:58:00 Carl Wynne
                                                            Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 17:18:00 Julian Pavey
                                                               Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 17:33:00 Cllr Sam Hearn
                                                                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year09/12/15 18:12:00 Julian Pavey
                                                                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year10/12/15 07:39:00 Rima Jones
                                                                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year10/12/15 09:57:00 Brian May
                                                                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:PM will use air quality at Heathrow to delay final runway decision until next year10/12/15 10:24:00 Claire Moran
                                                                              gov statement/press release 'Government confirms support for airport expansion in the south-east'10/12/15 22:20:00 Claudia Jachtmann
                                                                                 a reminder of the 3 short listed schemes 10/12/15 22:36:00 Claudia Jachtmann

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